Over the next week, Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to experience mostly dry, dusty conditions as this year’s first major Saharan Dust surge arrives on Sunday.
What you need to know
— What: Over the next five days, an Atlantic high-pressure system is forecast to remain dominant across T&T and the Lesser Antilles, with moderate to occasionally strong low-level winds and high to significant Saharan Dust. A few low-level cloud patches may bring brisk showers.
— Where: Over the next five days, overall rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain below 10 millimeters across most of Trinidad and Tobago. Across the eastern half of Trinidad, five-day rainfall totals could reach 20 to 30 millimeters, with the highest totals in northeastern Trinidad.
— When: Fast-moving isolated showers are forecast throughout the next five days, favoring Saturday and Sunday, and will be accompanied by gusty winds. Significant Saharan Dust is forecast from mid-Sunday.
— Impacts: The main hazards over the next five days will be decreased air quality and visibility due to significant Saharan Dust and gusty winds between 45 km/h and 55 km/h accompanying showers, particularly on Saturday and Sunday. These wind gusts may lead to fallen trees/utility poles/lines, as well as localized wind damage and agitated seas. All types of flooding are not expected over the next five days.
— What Should You Do: Be aware of your surroundings and changing weather conditions. Secure loose outdoor objects, particularly on Saturday and Sunday. All sensitive groups should take all necessary precautions due to the expected decrease in air quality from Sunday.
Latest Alerts
High Wind Alert Remains In Effect For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Long-Period Swells To Return Next Week
Temperatures
Saturday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 33-35°C
Sunday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 33-35°C
Monday
Low: 23-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 33-35°C
Tuesday
Low: 23-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 33-35°C
Wednesday
Low: 23-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 33-35°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
Over the next five days, overall rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain below 10 millimeters across most of Trinidad and Tobago. Across the eastern half of Trinidad, five-day rainfall totals could reach 20 to 30 millimeters, with the highest totals in northeastern Trinidad.
Street & Flash Flooding
Street & Flash FloodingRiverine Flooding
Riverine FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: Across both islands, up to 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation forecast, with locally higher totals possible in northern and eastern areas.
- Sunday: Across the western half of Trinidad and across Tobago, up to 5 millimeters of rainfall forecast, with totals up to 10 millimeters favoring northern and eastern Trinidad.
- Monday: Across western Trinidad and Tobago, no rainfall to trace accumulations. Across eastern Trinidad and Tobago, up to 5 millimeters possible, favoring northeastern Trinidad. Along the eastern coast of Trinidad, locally higher totals are possible.
- Tuesday: Little to no rainfall across most of Trinidad, with up to 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across eastern Trinidad and Tobago.
- Wednesday: Little to no rainfall forecast.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 63 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith wind gusts exceeding 45 km/h, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
A significant surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across T&T from Sunday. Long-period swells are also forecast through the next seven days.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Next Saharan Dust Surge Forecast By Mid-Next Week
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is that the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than for isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly everyone and every area can expect rainfall.
Isolated rainfall is forecast over the next five days.
Forecast Discussion
A very typical dry-season pattern is in place over the next week or so. At the surface to mid-levels, a strong Atlantic high-pressure system remains in place, leading to primarily easterly to northeasterly winds with a few low-level cloud patches. Unlike the last few days of rainfall, the mid- to upper levels of the atmosphere will become increasingly dry as an upper-level jet moves away, and with Saharan Dust moving in, the mid- to low-level atmosphere will follow suit and remain dry through the next week.
Surface to low-level winds will be elevated, particularly on Saturday through Sunday, and again from next Thursday due to the strength of the Atlantic High, leading to breezy conditions for T&T, and occasional gusty winds in passing showers.
A Hazardous Seas Alert is in effect from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at this time, and based on current model guidance, another may be warranted by early to mid-next week.
