Next Saharan Dust Surge Forecast By Mid-Next Week

The major surge of Saharan Dust that left the African coast at the end of March is now moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with two distinct surges – one set to remain north of the Lesser Antilles by the start of the upcoming week, and a slower-moving, more prolonged surge arriving across the island chain by Wednesday.

What you need to know

— Saharan Dust Surges: A moderate to high-concentration surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles by late Tuesday, April 7th, into Wednesday, April 8th, 2026, and linger across the region through April 11th.
What Should You Do: Particularly from April 7th, sensitive groups should take the necessary precautions, with further reduced air quality during high traffic and in the vicinity of fires.

Current AQI Levels Across T&T

As of 3:00 PM Friday, April 3rd, 2026, all official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) are not reporting PM2.5 (particulates smaller than 2.5 micrometers in size, typically associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulate data.

However, unofficial air quality monitoring stations in Longdenville and Woodbrook report good air quality.

Outside of rainfall, visibility, used as a proxy for Saharan Dust concentrations, is 10 kilometers at both A.N.R. Robinson International Airport in Crown Point, Tobago, and Piarco International Airport in Piarco, Trinidad.

Editor’s note: The EMA’s air quality dashboard has not been reporting PM2.5 or PM10 particulate data for some time due to equipment upgrades. Although the EMA’s dashboard may show good air quality during this week, the data are based on carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrous oxide, and sulfur dioxide measurements, not on Saharan Dust particulates.

Saharan Dust Forecast For T&T

Air quality forecast for Trinidad and Tobago, based on Saharan Dust concentrations over the next seven days.

April 4th-April 7th: Little to no Saharan Dust across T&T. Air quality level at good. Horizontal visibility is unaffected. Localized air quality will be degraded in the vicinity of fires and blowing smoke.

April 8th-April 10th: Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust across Trinidad and Tobago, with peak dust concentrations on April 9th. Air quality level at moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups. Horizontal visibility between 7 and 10 kilometers.

00Z Friday, April 3rd, 2026, NASA GEOS-5 Dust Extinction Monitoring Tropical Atlantic Dust Aerosol Optical Depth showing Saharan Dust. (Weathermodels.com)

What does this mean for you?

Through April 7th, air quality across Trinidad and Tobago will generally be good, and expected rainfall between April 4th and 6th will reduce the risk of fires, smoke, and blowing dust.

From April 8th, air quality across Trinidad and Tobago will be reduced, with peak dust concentrations likely on April 9th.

We’ve entered a period in which a ridge of high pressure remains over the central Sahara Desert, while the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remains over the Gulf of Guinea, extending southwestward to Brazil. The Harmattan wind (see below) accelerates when it blows across the mountain massifs of Northwest Africa. If its speed is high enough and it blows over dust source regions, it lifts and disperses the dust.

The Harmattan Winds over Central & Western Africa (Source)
The Harmattan Winds over Central & Western Africa (Source)

The dust surges during this time of year are due to the Harmattan, a season across the West African subcontinent that occurs between late November and mid-March. During this season, a predominant northeasterly trade wind (known as the Harmattan Winds) blows from the Sahara Desert across West Africa into the Gulf of Guinea.

Dust that reaches the upper levels of the atmosphere can then be transported across the Atlantic Ocean and affect the Eastern Caribbean. These Saharan Dust outbreaks tend to be milder in the Eastern Caribbean.

Climatological average of Saharan Dust cover across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Trinidad and Tobago. (Photo: Michael Lowry/NASA)
Climatological average of Saharan Dust cover across the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Trinidad and Tobago. (Photo: Michael Lowry/NASA)

Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.

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