What you need to know
— What: A combination of a low to mid-level trough with near-record-high atmospheric moisture and favorable low and upper-level conditions is forecast to produce cloudy skies with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday through Tuesday. A high-pressure ridge returns by late Tuesday.
— Where: Elevated low-level winds with stronger gusts and rainfall are forecast across both islands. Stronger wind gusts are forecast across northern and eastern Trinidad as well as Tobago. Over the next five days, overall rainfall totals are forecast between 30 and 50 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with totals nearing 75 millimeters favoring southern and eastern Trinidad. Locally higher totals are possible, favoring Trinidad, where persisting heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
— When: Peak winds and rainfall are forecast on Saturday through Tuesday afternoon. Elevated Saharan Dust is forecast from Tuesday night.
— Impacts: The main hazards through Tuesday will be gusty winds and localized, short-lived street/flash flooding. Wind gusts between 45 and 50 km/h are likely in heavy showers and thunderstorms, with higher gusts possible, leading to fallen trees/utility poles/lines, as well as localized wind damage and agitated seas. Short-lived street/flash flooding may lead to temporary traffic disruptions, particularly across Trinidad over the weekend into early next week.
— What Should You Do: Be aware of your surroundings and changing weather conditions. Secure loose outdoor objects, particularly on Saturday and Sunday. All sensitive groups should take all necessary precautions due to the expected decrease in air quality from Wednesday.
Latest Alerts
High Wind Alert Remains In Effect For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Long-Period Swells To Return Next Week
Temperatures
Saturday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 32-35°C
Sunday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 29-30°C
Feels Like: 30-34°C
Monday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Feels Like: 32-35°C
Tuesday
Low: 23-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Feels Like: 32-35°C
Wednesday
Low: 23-24°C
High: 30-32°C
Feels Like: 32-35°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
Over the next five days, overall rainfall totals are forecast between 30 and 50 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with totals nearing 75 millimeters favoring southern and eastern Trinidad. Locally higher totals are possible, favoring Trinidad, where persisting heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
Street & Flash Flooding
Street & Flash FloodingRiverine Flooding
Riverine FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: 5-10 millimeters across both islands. Localized 10-25 millimeters across the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad. >25 millimeters in highly localized areas of southern and eastern Trinidad, and where persisting heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
- Sunday: 10-15 millimeters across both islands. 15-25 millimeters across the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad, as well as across Tobago. 25-40 millimeters in highly localized areas of southern and eastern Trinidad, and where persisting heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
- Monday: 0-5 millimeters across the western half of Trinidad. 5-15 millimeters across the eastern half of Trinidad and Tobago, as well as localized areas of southern Trinidad where isolated heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
- Tuesday: 0-5 millimeters of rainfall forecast across both islands, with isolated totals up to 10 millimeters across northeastern areas of both islands.
- Wednesday: Little to no rainfall forecast with isolated totals up to 5 millimeters across northeastern areas of both islands.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates exceeding 50 millimeters per hour, or areas receiving more than 25 millimeters in an hour, tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters of rainfall within 24 hours, and the rainfall would have to fall across the catchment areas of major rivers.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 63 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith wind gusts reaching and possibly exceeding 50 km/h, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
A moderate-to-high-concentration surge of Saharan dust is forecast to move across T&T starting Sunday. Long-period swells are forecast from Monday, which may warrant a Hazardous Seas Alert between Monday and Thursday.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Next Saharan Dust Surge Forecast By Mid-Next Week
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is that the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than for isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly everyone and every area can expect rainfall.
Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast on Saturday through Monday, with highly isolated rainfall forecast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast Discussion
April is Trinidad and Tobago’s third driest month of the year, with an average monthly rainfall total of 47.9 millimeters at Crown Point, Tobago, and 51.6 millimeters at Piarco, Trinidad. On occasion, it brings impactful rainfall events, such as in 2023, when most areas across Trinidad recorded more than a month’s worth of rainfall (the average for April) in just 48 hours.
Over the next 48 hours, a low- to mid-level trough is forecast to affect Trinidad and Tobago, coupled with near-record-high atmospheric moisture, strong low-level convergence, and upper-level divergence (due to an upper-level jet), all of which are set to produce cloudy skies, periods of showers, and isolated thunderstorms.
While it remains to be seen how much rain materializes across T&T over the next 48-hour and five-day period, we’re explicitly forecasting 5-day accumulations exceeding the average April rainfall totals across both islands, with most of the rainfall favoring eastern and southern Trinidad, peaking on Saturday and Sunday.
Our forecast calls for 30 and 50 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with totals nearing 75 millimeters favoring southern and eastern Trinidad. Based on known relationships between rainfall accumulation, intensity, and T&T’s current soil moisture, this rainfall will largely be beneficial as dry soils absorb most of the rainfall. There is still a medium risk of street/flash flooding in the urbanized areas of both islands, favoring southern and eastern Trinidad over the weekend.
However, it should be noted that high-resolution model guidance and some ensemble models indicate very high rainfall totals through Sunday, with 48-hour totals ranging from 125 to 215 millimeters, favoring southern and eastern Trinidad. As incredible as these totals sound for a dry month like April, in 2023, multiple areas of Trinidad recorded rainfall totals between 100 and 200 millimeters in a 72-hour period, and one station in Coalmine, Sangre Grande, recorded a whopping 401.9 millimeters, so it’s not unheard of.
Drier air begins to filter in across T&T from Monday afternoon as a high-pressure ridge rebuilds, with a moderate-to-high-concentration surge of Saharan Dust moving in from Tuesday night. As a result, mostly dry, hazy conditions are forecast from Wednesday, with low-level cloud patches bringing brief cloudy periods and isolated showers favoring eastern areas of the country.
Alert-wise, there are no alerts, watches, or warnings from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS), and unless the TTMS determines that the forecast rainfall and gusty winds will lead to impacts that cause injuries or property damage, an Adverse Weather Alert may not be issued. However, with long-period swells forecast on Monday, and swell periods up to 16 seconds forecast, a Hazardous Seas Alert may be issued.
