The first major surge of Saharan Dust for 2026 is moving across the Atlantic. The highest concentrations of dust are forecast to reach and move across Guyana by Sunday morning, with significant dust levels expected to build across Trinidad and Tobago by midday on Sunday.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: A major Saharan Dust surge is forecast to affect T&T and the Windward Islands from midday Sunday. While peak concentrations are forecast from late Sunday evening through Monday, this surge is expected to persist, with elevated dust levels remaining across T&T and the Windwards through Sunday, March 1st, 2026.
— What Should You Do: From February 22nd through February 24th, everyone should take the necessary precautions. Thereafter, sensitive groups should continue take the necessary precautions, particularly during high traffic and in the vicinity of fires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
As of 4:00 AM Friday, February 20th, 2026, all official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) are not reporting PM2.5 (particulates smaller than 2.5 micrometers in size, typically associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulate data.
However, unofficial air quality monitoring stations at Longdenville and Woodbrook report good air quality levels.
Outside of rainfall, visibility, used as a proxy for Saharan Dust concentrations, at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and at Piarco, remains at 10 kilometers over the last 24 hours.
Saharan Dust Forecast For T&T
February 21st: Mild Saharan Dust concentrations forecast with air quality at good levels. Horizontal visibility is generally unaffected by dust.
February 22nd through February 23rd: Increasing Saharan Dust concentrations, particularly from midday Sunday, February 22nd, peaking overnight into Monday, February 23rd, with air quality levels likely reaching unhealthy for sensitive groups, possibly reaching unhealthy levels across Trinidad. Horizontal visibility will be reduced to below 7 kilometers, and at times to below 5 kilometers.
February 24th through February 27th: Decreasing but still high concentrations of Saharan Dust through the four-day period, with air quality levels gradually improving from unhealthy for sensitive groups to moderate. Horizontal visibility continues to be diminished, below 10 kilometers through the forecast period.
What does this mean for you?
With air quality possibly reaching unhealthy levels on Sunday and Monday, everyone may begin to experience health effects, and members of sensitive groups may experience more serious health effects. Everyone should take the necessary precautions, particularly through February 23rd, when peak concentrations are forecast.
From February 24th, air quality is forecast to gradually improve across Trinidad and Tobago as higher concentrations of Saharan Dust move westward. However, with elevated concentrations still present and drier conditions bringing the risk of fires, air quality is still forecast to be reduced, with further reductions in localized areas of fires, blowing smoke and dust, and high traffic.
We’ve entered a period in which a ridge of high pressure remains over the central Sahara Desert, while the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remains over the Gulf of Guinea, extending southwestward to Brazil. The Harmattan wind (see below) accelerates when it blows across the mountain massifs of Northwest Africa. If its speed is high enough and it blows over dust source regions, it lifts the dust and disperses it.
The surges of dust during this time of year are due to the Harmattan, a season in the West African subcontinent that occurs between the end of November and the middle of March. During this season, a predominant northeasterly trade wind (dubbed the Harmattan Winds) blows from the Sahara Desert over Western Africa into the Gulf of Guinea.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean and affect the Eastern Caribbean. These Saharan Dust outbreaks tend to be milder in the Eastern Caribbean than the dust outbreaks.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
