The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is officially declaring the start of the 2025 Dry Season today, Thursday, January 8th, 2026. The Dry Season occurs once the TTMS observes the following synoptic features:
- The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is in its southernmost position across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
- The intensification and equatorward migration of the North Atlantic Sub-Tropical High Pressure cell.
- Strengthened Trade-wind inversion (west Africa, central tropical Atlantic, and eastern Caribbean)
- Upper-Level Westerly winds.
In a statement, the TTMS explained, “a relatively strong North Atlantic Sub-Tropical Pressure cell combined with the shift in upper-level wind direction to mostly westerlies winds has led to an observed reduction in the frequency of showery and/or rainy weather over Trinidad and Tobago.” They added that passing mid-latitude frontal systems have induced moist low-level perturbations over the region.
During the Dry Season, the country experiences significantly lower rainfall than in the Wet Season; however, the Dry Season is not entirely devoid of rainfall. At this time, rainfall events across Trinidad and Tobago are not associated with wet season systems (i.e., ITCZ, tropical waves, or tropical cyclone activity).
The Dry Season generally manifests as reduced moisture, increased atmospheric stability, fewer deep clouds, less frequent rainfall events, warm days and cool nights, and a shift in surface wind direction from mostly easterlies to north-easterlies.
Likely Impacts of the 2026 Dry Season
According to the TTMS, the initial part of the dry season, January to March, is expected to be mostly wetter than normal and warmer than usual, which may result in the following:
- Less vegetative stress due to relatively less surface dryness.
- A positive impact on surface and groundwater recharge and stream flow rates.
- An increase in the breeding areas for insect vectors, such as mosquitoes, due to uncovered water storage devices and water pooling in drains, low-lying areas, and roof guttering.
- A decrease in the potential for bush, forest, and landfill fires, especially during January to March.
As the Dry Season progresses, the latter part of the season, April through May, is expected to be as wet as usual, which may result in the following:
- While the potential for bush, forest, and landfill fires might be reduced, it still remains.
- Reduction in groundwater recharge, surface water flows, and rain-fed water availability.
- There is an increased likelihood of Saharan dust-haze events, which will degrade air quality.
The TTMS is advising the public to conserve, store, and manage water sustainably. It is highly recommended that the public comply with the Agricultural Fires Act or refrain from burning rubbish in grassy or forested areas during the Dry Season.
