Elevated levels of Saharan Dust and a generally unfavorable atmosphere are forecast to limit showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago during the next five days. In addition, with a decrease in trade winds, temperatures are forecast to be hot, with isolated, localized showers and thunderstorms bringing much-needed heat relief.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: No significant rainfall is forecast across Trinidad and Tobago over the next five days outside of localized pockets where five-day rainfall totals could exceed 25mm of rain in isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms.
— Saharan Dust: Elevated Saharan Dust concentrations are forecast across T&T through the forecast period, with a significant surge likely by Wednesday into Thursday, July 19th into 20th.
— Hazards: Over the next five days, the main hazards will be highly localized street/flash flooding and brief gusty winds in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms. In and ahead of heavy showers or thunderstorms, sustained winds can reach 35 KM/H with gusts to 45 KM/H. Air quality through the forecast period will be reduced.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be slight to moderate, with waves in open waters ranging between 1.0 and 1.5 meters, while in sheltered areas, waves are forecast to remain below 0.5 meters.
Latest Alerts
Adverse Weather Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Sunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayMarine Forecast
Sea Forecast: Increasing Winds To Agitate Seas Into Weekend
Temperatures
Temperatures are forecast to be warm through the week, with maximum highs near and exceeding 32°C.
Wednesday through Sunday
Low: 24-27°C
High: 31-34°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to range between 30°C to 33°C, with higher temperatures across urbanized areas of Trinidad, where in built-up areas, maximum high temperatures could exceed 34°C. Minimum lows are forecast to remain mild, ranging between 24°C and 27°C in Trinidad and Tobago, trending cooler in interior areas. The heat index will generally be above 35°C through the forecast period.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Sunday: Little to no rainfall across T&T, with isolated totals less than 5 millimeters.
- Monday: Little to no rainfall across T&T, with isolated totals less than 5 millimeters.
- Tuesday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters of rain across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated totals nearing 15 millimeters across western coastal areas of Trinidad, and in highly isolated areas where heavy downpours occur, up to 25 millimeters are possible.
- Wednesday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters of rain across Trinidad, with isolated totals nearing 15 millimeters across western coastal and eastern areas of Trinidad, as well as Tobago, and in highly isolated areas where heavy downpours occur, up to 25 millimeters are possible.
- Thursday: Little to no rainfall across T&T, with isolated totals less than 5 millimeters.
Understanding Rainfall Rates
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures. Small potted plants may blow over with light outdoor objects becoming airborne in stronger gusts. Tents may jump.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Short-Lived Saharan Dust Surge From Thursday into Weekend
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Throughout the week, highly isolated rainfall is forecast.
Forecast Discussion
Tropical Wave 23 moved across Trinidad and Tobago during the early hours on Saturday, with much of the rainfall remaining north of the country. In its wake, a high-pressure system has strengthened and is forecast to remain in place across the region through the upcoming week.
Throughout the next five days, as this high-pressure system dominates across the region, it will be relatively weak across Trinidad and Tobago, allowing for light to gentle winds across the country from the southeast to the northeast at times. As a result, we could see our local climatic effects (daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic effects) bring some isolated afternoon showers and the odd thunderstorm along western and hilly areas of Trinidad, particularly on Tuesday into Wednesday.
Tropical Wave 24, east of the Lesser Antilles, is forecast to succumb to abundant Saharan Dust limiting convection (showers and thunderstorms) as well as strong wind shear as it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday, bringing a marginal increase in rainfall chances and cloudy skies. However, little mid to upper-level support will inhibit any significant shower/thunderstorm activity.
Following its passage, pulses of Saharan Dust, with a significant mid-week surge, will maintain relatively dry conditions across Trinidad and Tobago. With a mostly dry atmosphere, little rainfall chances, and light winds, conditions across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to be increasingly warm as the week progresses, with the chances for bushfires increasing. Additionally, as mentioned in the Saharan Dust forecast, the late-week surge is forecast to be a high-concentration one, reducing visibility and air quality across the country into the weekend, which will be further exacerbated in the vicinity of any bushfires.
