Dry air has entrenched itself across Trinidad and Tobago, leading to mostly sunny skies, and with light winds, our temperatures are climbing. However, with pulses of moisture moving toward the area, brisk, isolated showers return in the forecast.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Through Sunday, most areas are not forecast to see any significant rainfall, with up to five millimeters of rainfall accumulating across the country. Across eastern coastal Trinidad and Tobago, between 10 and 20 millimeters are possible where showers move onshore. In highly isolated areas across eastern Trinidad, totals could exceed 20 millimeters
— Saharan Dust: Mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain across T&T throughout the week, increasing through the upcoming weekend.
— Hazards: The main hazard this week will be reduced air quality as a result of Saharan Dust and bushfires. Winds are set to increase as the week progresses, so in isolated showers, wind gusts may exceed 40 KM/H. Flooding is not expected this week.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters with waves up to 2.0 meters and below 1.0 meter in sheltered areas. Seas may become locally choppy by Thursday due to a combination of swells, spring tides, and elevated winds.
Latest Alerts
There are no alerts, watches, or warnings from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service in effect for T&T at this time. Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Wednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Moderate Seas, Reduced Visibility
Temperatures
Generally, over the next five days, maximum highs and minimum lows are forecast to be above average.
Tuesday through Saturday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 31-34°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to range between 31°C to 34°C trending cooler across Tobago and higher across urbanized areas of Trinidad, where in built-up areas, maximum high temperatures could exceed 34°C. Minimum lows are forecast to remain warm, ranging between 24°C and 26°C in Trinidad and Tobago, trending cooler in interior areas. The heat index will generally exceed 38°C this week, prompting concerns about heat exhaustion.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Wednesday: Little to no rainfall forecast. Isolated areas favoring northern and eastern Trinidad, as well as Tobago, receiving up to 5 millimeters.
- Thursday: Little to no rainfall forecast. Isolated areas receiving less than 5 millimeters, favoring eastern Trinidad.
- Friday: Little to no rainfall forecast. Isolated areas, favoring eastern Trinidad and Tobago, receiving up to 5 millimeters.
- Saturday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals exceeding 5 millimeters, favoring eastern and northern Trinidad, as well as Tobago.
- Sunday: Little to no rainfall forecast. Isolated areas, favoring eastern and southern Trinidad and Tobago, may receive up to 5 millimeters.
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsGusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Major Saharan Dust Surge Now Moving Across T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Highly isolated rainfall is forecast this week, with mostly sunny and hazy skies expected.
Forecast Discussion
Trinidad and Tobago has been under the influence of a deep-layered ridge pattern over the last few days, with very dry air in place, particularly at the low to mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
On Wednesday, moisture ahead of a surface-to-low-level shear line is forecast to drift across Trinidad and Tobago, with an area of low-level convergence present by the evening. Moisture will be capped at the 800-millibar level, resulting in shallow convection with sufficient instability present. This marginal increase in moisture is forecast to bring increased cloudiness with a few brief showers from Wednesday through Thursday, favoring northern and eastern Trinidad and Tobago. However, overall rainfall accumulations are forecast to remain low.
By Thursday, a drier airmass is forecast to move in, accompanied by a surge in Saharan Dust, and linger into the weekend. This dry, dusty air will be accompanied by the return of the deep-layered ridge re-establishing itself across Trinidad and Tobago.
Looking slightly further into the weekend, another marginal increase in moisture is forecast as a southeasterly flow of winds moves across Trinidad, resulting in a few showers favoring eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago on Saturday into the early hours of Sunday. The GFS is the outlier at this time, showing a fairly moist mid and low-level environment on Sunday. If this materializes, the cloudy weather on Saturday could extend into Sunday. However, with the forecast Saharan Dust that is supposed to be present, dry air will limit showers. While international organizations still are not convinced this is a tropical wave, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has analyzed this as the first tropical wave for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
