Tropical Storm Philippe’s center is approximately 30 kilometers east of Barbuda on Monday afternoon, prompting the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service to upgrade the Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua, now joining Barbuda under a Tropical Storm Warning.
Meanwhile, feeder band activity continues to affect the entire Lesser Antilles island chain, from as south as Trinidad and Tobago, to as north as Anguilla, with the most intense activity generally remaining east of the region. Through tonight, feeder band activity will begin to subside across the Windward Islands.
What you need to know
— What has happened: Tropical Storm Philippe has remained near the Lesser Antilles for the last several days, influencing the atmosphere across the region, leading to strong afternoon thunderstorms and hot temperatures in T&T. Feeder band activity has also affected the Lesser Antilles, and influencing prevailing low-level winds across T&T, leading to showers and thunderstorms developing and moving from the southwest/south to northeast/north.
— Where is it forecast to move: Philippe is finally moving northwestward. As it makes a fairly close pass to Antigua and Barbuda, it brings the risk of tropical storm-force winds, gusts, and heavy rainfall.
— The Intensity: Forecast models and the National Hurricane Center indicate Philippe remains a tropical storm as it moves past Antigua and Barbuda and further strengthen as it moves into the North Atlantic Ocean later this week, with the potential to become a hurricane.
— The Impacts: For Antigua and Barbuda, tropical-storm-force winds and gusts are expected within the next 6 hours, with heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and agitated seas likely for both islands. For the remainder of the Lesser Antilles, including T&T, feeder band activity and enhanced convergence will support heavy showers and isolated intense thunderstorm activity that can produce gusty winds (>55 KM/H) capable of causing wind damage, heavy/violent rainfall rates triggering street/flash flooding, agitated seas, landslides, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. This activity is forecast to gradually subside through tonight for the Southern Windwards and early Tuesday for the northern Windwards.
— Latest from officials: Antigua and Barbuda is under a Tropical Storm Warning. T&T’s Adverse Weather Alert (Yellow Level) has been discontinued, but thunderstorms continue. Yellow-level alerts for heavy rains and thunderstorms, hazardous marine conditions, and elevated winds exist for Martinique and Guadeloupe, while a Red-level Flash Flood Warning and Severe Thunderstorm Warning have been discontinued for Barbados.
This system poses no threat to Trinidad, Tobago, and the Eastern Caribbean region.
The Latest
According to the National Hurricane Center, at 5:00 PM AST, the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 11 KM/H, and this general motion is anticipated through early Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to pass near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and north of those islands on Tuesday. The strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands after the center passes. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast to occur by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 KM/H with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 280 kilometers from the center, mainly to the east and southeast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 millibars.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Antigua and Barbuda. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday:
- Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150 millimeters)
- Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 millimeters)
This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and are possible in the watch area beginning this evening.
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
