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Forecast: Mostly Hot, Sunny Week Ahead With Afternoon Showers, Thunderstorms

October 16, 2022
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Mostly hot and sunny conditions are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago this week. However, with light winds and marginal levels of moisture, typical afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms favoring western Trinidad and Tobago can’t be ruled out.

What you need to know

— Rainfall: A mostly dry week for most areas of Trinidad and Tobago is forecast. Across western areas of mainly Trinidad, isolated overall rainfall totals are forecast to reach near 1 inch (25 millimeters), with localized areas where thunderstorm activity occurs exceeding 1 inch of rainfall accumulation.
— Hazards: This week’s main hazard will be highly localized and short-lived street or flash flooding favoring western coastal Trinidad. Wind gusts up to 45 KM/H are possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms, but generally, winds remain gentle across the region this week. Lightning will accompany thunderstorms.
— Alerts/Watches/Warnings: There are no alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. There are no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings in effect for T&T at this time.
— Saharan Dust: A mild surge of dust is forecast to arrive across Trinidad and Tobago by late Monday, with another surge by Thursday.

The Forecast

Trinidad and Tobago will slip into the typical Wet Season pattern of mostly hot and sunny days this week, with western areas interrupted by isolated heavy showers or the odd thunderstorm during the afternoon.

Sunday Night

Sunday Night
1 10 0 1
Partly cloudy and cool with the odd shower favoring Tobago and eastern areas of Trinidad.
Partly cloudy and cool with the odd shower favoring Tobago and eastern areas of Trinidad.
1/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Very Low

Monday

Monday
5 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along western coastal and southern Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along western coastal and southern Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
5/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Medium

Tuesday

Tuesday
3 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Wednesday

Wednesday
4 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
4/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low – Medium

Thursday

Thursday
3 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Friday

Friday
4 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
Mostly hot and sunny across the country with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm developing along western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. A partly cloudy night with the odd shower favoring eastern areas of both islands. Gusty winds, street flooding possible may accompany heavy shower/thunderstorm activity.
4/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low – Medium

Marine: Through Friday, slight seas are forecast in T&T’s open waters, with near-calm seas in sheltered areas.

Temperatures

Generally, with sunny skies and light winds, temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to be hot through the week with maximum high temperatures at Piarco reaching up to or exceeding 34.0°C and temperatures at Crown Point, Tobago reaching or exceeding 32.0°C.

More on this week’s temperatures

Forecast Impacts

Flooding

Flooding
4 10 0 1
Overall rainfall totals are forecast to reach up to 25 millimeters across both islands over the next five days with most areas remaining fairly dry. Locally higher daily totals are possible, particularly across western coastal areas where thunderstorms occur.
Overall rainfall totals are forecast to reach up to 25 millimeters across both islands over the next five days with most areas remaining fairly dry. Locally higher daily totals are possible, particularly across western coastal areas where thunderstorms occur.
4/10
Likelihood
Low – Medium

Chances for street and flash flooding are low to medium, mainly across western Trinidad. Riverine flooding remains unlikely as overall rainfall totals remain low.

Forecast Rainfall Totals

  • Monday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters across parts of Trinidad.
  • Tuesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands.
  • Wednesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands.
  • Thursday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands.
  • Friday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands.

Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.

Strong Thunderstorms

Strong Thunderstorms
1 10 0 1
Conditions are not favorable for strong or persisting thunderstorm activity due to a fairly dry atmosphere with strong wind shear present.
Conditions are not favorable for strong or persisting thunderstorm activity due to a fairly dry atmosphere with strong wind shear present.
1/10
Likelihood
Very Low

Although strong thunderstorms are not forecast, short-lived funnel cloud development is possible due to light and variable low-level winds. If a funnel cloud touches down on a body of water, it becomes a waterspout; if it touches down on land, it becomes a tornado.

Gusty Winds

Gusty Winds
2 10 0 1
Low-level winds are forecast to be gentle. Sustained winds are forecast to reach up to 15 KM/H with higher gusts possible.
Low-level winds are forecast to be gentle. Sustained winds are forecast to reach up to 15 KM/H with higher gusts possible.
2/10
Likelihood
Very Low – Low

If gusty winds materialize, possible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures.

Other Hazards

Cloud-to-ground lightning is possible in thunderstorm activity.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.

Most areas across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain fairly dry, with highly isolated rainfall, favoring western Trinidad, over the next five days.

Forecast Discussion

8:00 PM Sunday, October 16th, 2022, Tropical Weather Outlook
8:00 PM Sunday, October 16th, 2022, Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Waves (and other notable weather features) near and east of T&T: Based on the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch’s 18Z surface analysis on October 16th, 2022, as well as the latest satellite and model guidance:

  • The 44th tropical wave for 2022 (TW44) is along 62°W, south of 18°N, moving west at 10 knots (18 KM/H). This wave moved across T&T and the Lesser Antilles on Sunday with little to no shower activity associated with its passage.
  • The 45th tropical wave for 2022 (TW45) is along 52°W, south of 17°N, moving west at 10 knots (18 KM/H). This wave is interacting with an upper-level low-pressure area, leading to scattered showers trailing the northern half of the wave axis. This tropical wave is forecast remain severely sheared by the upper-level trough across the Lesser Antilles, becoming nearly stationary moving across the region by midweek.
  • The 46th tropical wave for 2022 (TW46) is along 35°W, south of 13°N, moving west at 10 knots (18 KM/H). Scattered showers have been noted with this wave and the monsoon trough nearby. This wave is not forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next five days.

Over the next five days, Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to remain under a weak surface to low-level high-pressure ridge at the lower levels of the atmosphere. At the upper-levels, Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to remain generally on the convergence side of upper-level troughs through Tuesday. Thereafter, while upper-level winds may improve, moisture from the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere are forecast to be lacking. Still, there may be a marginal increase in mid to upper-level clouds on Wednesday into Thursday and isolated support for any showers or thunderstorms that form.

Weak low-level winds are forecast to remain in place through the week, leading to high temperatures. Strong daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic effects are forecast to trigger/enhance showers or the odd thunderstorm across western and hilly areas of both islands.

However, very strong wind shear and dry moisture levels across the atmosphere are forecast to limit rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago, with some cloudy interruptions.

By Monday night and again on Thursday night, a marginal increase in Saharan Dust is forecast leading to an increase in haze and decrease in air quality.

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