While no significant, widespread rainfall is forecast across the country over the next five days, a nearby tropical disturbance is forecast to influence the atmosphere across T&T, leading to increased cloudiness, isolated showers, and thunderstorms.
What weather T&T ultimately experiences is highly dependent on the proximity of Invest 94L to the Windwards, whose eventual track remains highly uncertain.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, between 15 and 25 millimeters are forecast across T&T. In isolated areas across western and northern Trinidad, as well as Tobago, up to 50 millimeters is forecast. In highly isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms, 24-hour rainfall totals could exceed 25 millimeters.
— Saharan Dust: Mild Saharan Dust is forecast across T&T over the next five days.
— Hazards: The main hazard over the next five days will originate from isolated thunderstorms, which may produce cloud-to-ground lightning, brief gusty winds, and highly isolated, heavy/violent rainfall, which can trigger short-lived, localized street/flash flooding.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be slight to moderate, with waves in open waters generally reaching as high as 2.0 meters, mainly on Friday and Saturday. In sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be near calm to calm initially but develop up to 1.0 meter by the end of the week.
Latest Alert
Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Tuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Moderate Seas, Reduced Visibility
Temperatures
Tueday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-34°C
Wednesday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 31-33°C
Thursday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-34°C
Friday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 31-34°C
Saturday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 31-34°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to return to average levels for October across Trinidad and Tobago over the next five days, with actual temperatures reaching as high as 32°C in Tobago and 33°C in Trinidad. Across the country, over the next five days, the heat index, or feels like temperature, is forecast to range between 34°C and 44°C, reaching as high as 50°C across western and urbanized areas of both islands. Heat indices above 42°C are dangerous. Note that while warm temperatures are still forecast, pop-up showers/thunderstorms could keep the actual temperature lower than forecast while the heat index remains high.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Tuesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the odd heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring western areas of Trinidad, where totals could exceed 15 millimeters.
- Wednesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the western and northern halves of Trinidad and across Tobago, where totals could exceed 15 millimeters. In isolated thunderstorm activity, rainfall totals could reach as high as 75 millimeters.
- Thursday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the odd heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring western areas of Trinidad, where totals could exceed 15 millimeters.
- Friday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the western and northern halves of Trinidad and across Tobago, where totals could exceed 15 millimeters.
- Saturday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the eastern half of Trinidad and across Tobago, where totals could exceed 15 millimeters.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsLittle to no wind impacts are forecast through the next five days. With possible (marginally) stronger gusts Friday into Saturday, some weaker trees may lose some branches, and unsecured outdoor furniture and structures may sustain some damage or move.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Major Saharan Dust Surge Now Moving Across T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Over the next five days, isolated rainfall is forecast.
Forecast Discussion
Tropical Update
Tropical Update: All Eyes On Invest 94L
Trinidad and Tobago’s forecast is highly dependent on the eventual track of Invest 94L, which is forecast to move well north and northeast of T&T, potentially passing near the Leewards, based on forecast models on Monday night.
On this trajectory, firstly, convergence ahead of the low-pressure area will lead to enhanced chances for cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms, coupled with an increase in moisture (humidity). Then, by Wednesday, continuing low-level convergence and a stronger northeasterly flow will lead to northeast-to-southwest moving rainfall, with activity being enhanced along western Trinidad, particularly as a favorable upper-level environment will be in place. However, strong southwesterly wind shear will limit persisting rainfall, spreading cloudiness northeastward.
From Thursday through Saturday, a low-level to surface trough will extend southwestward from Invest 94L and its eventual low-pressure area, leading to light southerly to southeasterly winds, bringing copious levels of moisture across T&T, supporting cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms and the Intertropical Convergence Zone across T&T. However, in the sunny periods during the morning, strong daytime heating, combined with sea breeze and orographic convergence, could act as triggers for isolated thunderstorms.
