Seas Forecast: Elevated Winds, King Tides To Agitate Seas Through Mid-Week

Some of the highest high tides and lowest low tides for 2023 are ongoing in tandem with a surge in low-level winds associated with a strong tropical wave forecast from today.

Latest Alerts

Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has discontinued the Hazardous Seas Alert for the country on Sunday at 12:04 PM. Over the last four days, northerly long-period swells have…

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.

Seas Forecast For Trinidad and Tobago

Sea state through the next seven days, as generally moderate seas, are forecast. Note that sheltered areas include bays, beaches, and generally, the Gulf of Paria and western areas of the Columbus Channel in Trinidad and the western coasts of Tobago. Open waters are the Atlantic Ocean (Eastern Trinidad and Tobago), the Eastern Columbus Channel (Southern Trinidad), and the Caribbean Sea (north of Trinidad, west of Tobago).
Sea state through the next seven days, as generally moderate seas, are forecast. Note that sheltered areas include bays, beaches, and generally, the Gulf of Paria and western areas of the Columbus Channel in Trinidad and the western coasts of Tobago. Open waters are the Atlantic Ocean (Eastern Trinidad and Tobago), the Eastern Columbus Channel (Southern Trinidad), and the Caribbean Sea (north of Trinidad, west of Tobago).

Today, Monday, through Wednesday, based on the latest guidance from models as of Monday morning, winds are forecast to increase in the region associated with Tropical Wave 19 and a surge of easterly trade winds. On Monday and Tuesday, sustained winds are forecast to increase from 10-20 knots during the first half of the day, peaking between 20 and 25 knots, gusting as high as 30 knots by nightfall. By mid-Wednesday into Thursday, winds are forecast to remain elevated but gradually decrease, ranging between 15 to 25 knots, and occasionally higher gusts.

The result – seas in open waters are forecast to be moderate from late Monday through Wednesday, with seas gradually settling as the week progresses as winds decrease and another tropical wave approaches. Waves in open waters are forecast to range between 2.0 and 2.5 meters, exceeding 2.5 meters in open waters on Monday night through Wednesday morning, while in sheltered areas, waves are forecast to reach as high as 1.5 meters.

While no long-period swells are forecast, King Tides, or some of the highest high tides and lowest low tides of the year, will continue through Thursday, which will increase the hazard potential during high tide periods through next week.

Saharan Dust levels are forecast to remain elevated from late Tuesday through Friday and again from late Sunday.

Through this weekend, swell periods are forecast between six and eleven seconds.

Tidal forecast for Port of Spain, Trinidad (above) and Scarborough, Tobago (below) courtesy Tide-Forecast.com

Possible Impacts

Saharan Dust concentrations are forecast to remain at elevated levels from Tuesday through Friday, affecting visibility and air quality.

Additionally, King Tides are forecast to continue through Thursday, July 6th, 2023. While spring tides are higher than usual high tides and lower than usual low tides, King Tides are some of the highest high tides and lowest low tides for the year, which will increase the rip current threat. Rip currents are strong currents perpendicular to the shoreline that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea. With heavy rainfall forecast on Monday evening through Tuesday, high tide periods may slow down runoff, enhancing chances of riverine flooding if modeled rainfall totals materialize.

The main marine impacts are likely from today (Monday) through Wednesday, with an increase in winds and increased tidal range. These include coastal erosion; coastal flooding; localized disruptions of businesses; sea search and rescue disruptions; damage or loss of boats and fishing equipment; disruptions to marine recreation and businesses, and economic losses.

Forecast models have trended away from having the strongest winds move across T&T, keeping it north of the country. A small craft and high surf advisory is in effect for Barbados until 6 AM Tuesday, a marine advisory is in effect for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, while for T&T, no marine advisories are in effect.

How to spot a rip current

Rip Currents

Going to the beach is one of Trinidad and Tobago’s favorite pastimes, but not too far from the shore lies a seemingly hidden danger – rip currents. As waves crash on our…
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