Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to experience repeated mild to moderate Saharan Dust surges and brief periods of improvement as tropical waves traverse the region over the next ten days.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: A mild to moderate Saharan Dust surge is moving across the area currently, with two others forecast on Sunday, June 9th, and Wednesday, June 12th. In all surges, higher dust concentrations are forecast to remain north of Trinidad and Tobago.
— Impacts: Between and following tropical wave activity, air quality is forecast to range from good to moderate, occasionally reaching levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups in the vicinity of smoke, fires, or high traffic.
— What Should You Do: In times of unhealthy air quality, everyone should take the necessary precautions. Throughout the forecast period, sensitive groups are advised to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high traffic and in the vicinity of fires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
The official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at Point Lisas, Toco, San Fernando, and Mayaro are all reporting moderate levels, while at Arima, good air quality is observed. There is no data from Scarborough or Beetham.
Unofficial air quality monitoring stations at Longdenville, St. Augustine, and Woodbrook are reporting good air quality.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility has remained at 10 kilometers at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and at the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad, outside of rainfall activity.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Through Saturday (June 8th): Mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations present with improvement during times of rainfall. Mainly moderate air quality.
Sunday (June 9th): Little to no Saharan Dust during the first half of the day, with mild to moderate concentrations of dust across Tobago by the afternoon and across Trinidad after nightfall. Higher dust levels north of the country. Good to moderate air quality.
Monday (June 10th): Mild to moderate dust levels present across both islands, but concentrations decrease as the day progresses. There is little dust by nightfall. The air quality is good to moderate.
Tuesday (June 11th): Little to no Saharan Dust. Good air quality. Note that heavy rainfall is forecast on this day due to a possible strong tropical wave traversing T&T on this day. Pay attention to the forecasts in the coming days for the latest.
Wednesday (June 12th) through Saturday (June 15th): Mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations present with improvement during times of rainfall. Mainly moderate air quality.
What does this mean for you?
ith elevated concentrations present and drier and breezier conditions bringing the risk of fires, air quality is still forecast to be reduced, with further reductions in localized areas of fires, blowing smoke and dust, and high traffic.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone, tropical waves, and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While tropical waves are notable in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
