Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to experience repeated Saharan Dust surges and brief periods of improvement as Tropical Waves traverse the region over the next ten days.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: Two Saharan Dust surges are forecast over the next ten days, moving in late Thursday, May 30th, 2024, and Monday, June 3rd, 2024. Generally, concentrations during these surges are forecast to be moderate to high.
— Impacts: Between and following tropical wave activity, air quality is forecast to range from moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups, with a further localized reduction in air quality levels near fires through the forecast period.
— What Should You Do: In times of unhealthy air quality, everyone should take the necessary precautions. Throughout the forecast period, sensitive groups are advised to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high traffic and in the vicinity of fires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
The official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at Point Lisas, Beetham, Toco, San Fernando, Mayaro, and Arima are all reporting moderate levels. There is no data from Scarborough.
Unofficial air quality monitoring stations at Longdenville, St. Augustine, and Woodbrook are reporting moderate to good air quality.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility has remained at 10 kilometers at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and at the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad, outside of rainfall activity.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Through noon Thursday (May 30th): Mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations present with improvement during times of rainfall. Good to moderate air quality.
PM Thursday (May 30th) through AM Sunday (June 2nd): Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust with decreasing concentrations nearing Sunday. Moderate air quality, to occasional unhealthy for sensitive groups.
Noon Sunday (June 2nd) through early PM Monday (June 3rd): Mild concentrations of Saharan Dust with improvement during times of rainfall. Good to moderate air quality.
Early PM Monday (June 3rd) through Friday (June 7th): Mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust, with peak concentrations on Wednesday, June 5th, 2024. Air quality levels range from moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups.
What does this mean for you?
Mainly between May 31st and June 2nd, and again from late June 3rd, air quality is forecast to reach generally moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups. With elevated concentrations present and drier and breezier conditions bringing the risk of fires, air quality is still forecast to be reduced, with further reductions in localized areas of fires, blowing smoke and dust, and high traffic.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone, tropical waves, and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While tropical waves are notable in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
