It’s a case still under investigation by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS). The late Monday night Adverse Weather Alert for T&T seen on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the popular model aggregate site Windy.com, and other international partners’ websites was erroneously issued by the TTMS, based on multiple sources within the agency.
What you need to know
— What has happened: An Adverse Weather Alert was issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at 11:43 PM Monday, November 6th, 2023, via their Common Alerting Protocol system, the international standard format for emergency alerting and public warning. However, the alert never made it to the TTMS website.
— The issue: The Alert, which originated from the TTMS and through the Common Alerting Protocol, was disseminated. TTWC, as a disseminator of early warning messages from the TTMS, shared the information across all platforms.
— What’s next: The TTMS has launched an investigation into how the alert left the TTMS’ office and made it onto international platforms. A Localized Flood Alert has replaced the erroneously issued Adverse Weather Alert.
What happened
Heavy rainfall affected Trinidad and Tobago on Monday, November 6th, 2023, causing many rivers to rise and street/flash flooding across varying areas of Trinidad.
According to sources in the TTMS, the evening shift forecaster on duty drafted an Adverse Weather Alert if one was needed at short notice, a common practice within the TTMS.
However, at 11:43 PM Monday, November 6th, 2023, this alert, which was supposed to remain an internal product, was published via the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP).
The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is the international standard format for emergency alerting and public warning. It has been adopted by the TTMS since 2018 with the release of the new hydro-meteorological early warning system T&T has grown used to, with nearly 600 alerts issued since its release. The CAP alert, as designed, made it onto the World Meteorological Organization’s Severe Weather Information Centre 2.0 website.
The information in this World Meteorological Organization (WMO) website is based on advisories issued by Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs), and official warnings issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) for their respective countries or regions. The media may use this information for their broadcasting services on the radio or TV. When doing so, it should be indicated that they are issued by the respective RSMCs, TCWCs or NMHSs.
World Meteorological Organization’s Severe Weather Information Centre 2.0
The alert, which can be viewed above, originated from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.
How are alerts issued?
In an ideal world, it is fairly straightforward for run-of-the-mill alerts, watches, or warnings that exclude international input like riverine floods (ODPM, WRA, & DMUs) or tropical cyclones (National Hurricane Center). The forecaster on duty would assess the risk and impact of a possible hazard (for example, strong thunderstorms that could produce flooding rainfall).
If the risk is large enough to pose a threat to life, livelihoods, or property, an alert, watch, or warning would be drafted and run up the chain of command within the TTMS for approval.
In cases like Monday, where forecast models showed the potential for heavy rainfall that could be impactful, early warning messages can be drafted for quick approval and dissemination.
However, these early warning messages can be disseminated prematurely, like Hawaii, the U.S. East Coast, or several other U.S. states, which is likely the case for Monday night’s alert in Trinidad and Tobago.
Once approved, the alert, watch, or warning can be inputted into the TTMS’ CAP-compliant early warning system and sent to the TTMS’ website and international agencies, with the early warning message then emailed to stakeholders and posted on the TTMS-owned social media platforms.
There have been instances where the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, due to technical challenges, have issued alerts, watches, or warnings via CAP or directly to social media and not via their website, and not even email to stakeholders, which is why Monday night’s alert was not very unusual.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations created to promote the establishment of a worldwide meteorological observation system, the application of meteorology to other fields, and the development of national meteorological services in less-developed countries. It is also considered an official source for weather, climate, and the environment.
The Alert, with all information, was republished by TTWC (now deleted from social media platforms to prevent it from further sharing), and the distinction of where the information was found was clear.
The response
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service issued the following statement on social media on Tuesday morning:
Please be advised that the Adverse Weather Alert that has been circulating on external platforms this morning was not officially disseminated by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS).
The TTMS is currently conducting investigations. We kindly request that you obtain all official weather forecasts and alerts for Trinidad and Tobago from the official TTMS website, mobile application, and authorized social media platforms.
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at 10:38 AM Tuesday, November 7th, 2023
Though the alert was not “officially disseminated,” even when looking at the raw CAP alert, the sender was “[email protected]” which is the official TTMS sender for all alerts issued by the Office.
The concern, according to internal TTMS sources, is that the same system that allows for the CAP alert to be sent to the World Meteorological Organization’s website should have also populated the TTMS’ website with the information, even in the case of a premature alert being issued.
The usefulness of a late-night alert
In 2019, we wrote extensively about the fledgling Early Warning System and its many, many challenges.
The Early Warning System
The Early Warning System – How Effective Is It?
Now, in 2023, over four years later, the same challenges remain. What is the usefulness of issuing an alert at 11:43 PM for the weather forecast to spread across the country before the population even awakes? Realistically, who can take the intended preparedness actions in such a short time frame?
The TTMS has been bashed publicly time and time again, and in mid-2023, they launched a survey to understand how the public feels about the early warning system. Hopefully, the feedback is used to improve a somewhat broken system.
A disclaimer
Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center is not Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, the official organization responsible for weather and climate for Trinidad and Tobago, and the sole organization that can issue hydrometeorological alerts, watches, or warnings for Trinidad and Tobago. These have included (to date) alerts for adverse weather, hot spells, riverine flooding, localized flooding, high wind, hazardous seas, and tropical cyclones.
Trinidad and Tobago Weather Center, LLC, with a large following online for weather, climate, and the environment, republishes these official alerts from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, similar to any other media house.
Changes to our reporting: To prevent another erroneous alert originating from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, future alerts, watches, or warnings issued by the TTMS will be verified with the TTMS forecaster on duty to ensure the validity of the alert.