Saharan Dust is forecast to remain at mostly mild to moderate levels across Trinidad, Tobago, and the Lesser Antilles over the next ten days, with the next surge forecast to arrive by November 3rd. However, forecast rainfall will temper the effects of Saharan Dust through the upcoming weekend.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: While there are no major surges of dust forecast to move across the region over the next ten days, mild to moderate dust is forecast to remain across the country through the forecast period, with mild to moderate concentration surges arriving on late November 2nd into November 3rd, and again from November 6th.
— Impacts: Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain between good and moderate.
— What Should You Do: Sensitive groups are advised to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high traffic periods and in the vicinity of bushfires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
The official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at Arima, San Fernando, and Point Lisas are reporting good air quality levels. Stations at Beetham and Signal Hill, Tobago, are not reporting PM2.5 or PM10 data as of Tuesday afternoon.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained unaffected by Saharan Dust and smoke at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and at the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad.
Saharan Dust Forecast
A surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across the Leewards from early November 2nd and across T&T from late November 2nd through November 3rd. However, this dust surge will be tempered across the Windwards, including Barbados and T&T, as a trough system brings rainfall to the region. Concentrations are forecast to be mild, decreasing by November 5th.
However, another mild to moderate dust surge that is forecast to be more prolonged is set to arrive across the Lesser Antilles on November 6th, with peak dust levels expected on November 7th. Mild to moderate dust levels are forecast through the following week, with decreasing dust levels.
Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain between good and moderate. Air quality may be further reduced in the vicinity of bush or landfill fires.
What does this mean for you?
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone and tropical waves and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While tropical waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
