An active tropical wave, a trough of low pressure, and favorable upper-level conditions are all set to create a wet weekend across Trinidad, Tobago, and the wider eastern Caribbean region. By Monday through the first half of next week, conditions are set to return to mostly hot and sunny.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, but particularly through Sunday, between 50 and 100 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas across Trinidad, locally higher amounts are possible. Note that from Monday, little to no significant rainfall is forecast.
— Saharan Dust: A brief surge in Saharan Dust is forecast from late Monday through next week.
— Hazards: Over the next five days, but mainly over the weekend, the main hazards will be street/flash flooding and gusty winds exceeding 45 KM/H in heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. There is a low risk of riverine flooding at this time. Landslides will be possible in elevated areas, with the highest risk across southern and central areas at this time.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate, with waves in open waters ranging up to 2.0 meters, occasionally reaching above on Sunday, while in sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be near to below 1.0 meter, but choppy in heavy showers/thunderstorms.
Latest Alerts
Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Moderate Seas, Reduced Visibility
Temperatures
Saturday
Low: 24-25°C
High: 29-32°C
Sunday
Low: 24-25°C
High: 28-30°C
Monday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 30-34°C
Tuesday
Low: 25-27°C
High: 32-35°C
Wednesday
Low: 25-27°C
High: 32-35°C
On Saturday and Sunday, maximum highs and minimum lows are forecast to be cooler than usual as a result of rainy conditions and increased cloud cover. From Monday, maximum highs trend warmer with higher temperatures across urbanized areas of Trinidad. Minimum lows are forecast to remain mild, ranging between 24°C and 27°C in Trinidad and Tobago, trending marginally cooler in interior areas. The heat index will generally be above 35°C from Monday.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: Between 15 and 25 millimeters across T&T, with isolated totals up to 50 millimeters across the country. In heavy showers/strong thunderstorms, higher amounts are possible, nearing 100 millimeters.
- Sunday: Between 15 and 25 millimeters across T&T, with isolated totals up to 50 millimeters across the country. In heavy showers/strong thunderstorms, higher amounts are possible.
- Monday: Little to no rainfall across the country, with isolated totals nearing 10 millimeters across western and hilly areas of both islands. In thunderstorm activity, locally higher totals are possible.
- Tuesday: Between 5 and 10 millimeters of rain across T&T, with isolated totals exceeding 20 millimeters across eastern coastal Trinidad, as well as northern and western areas of both islands. In thunderstorm activity, locally higher totals are possible.
- Wednesday: Little to no rainfall across the country, with isolated totals nearing 10 millimeters across western and hilly areas of both islands. In thunderstorm activity, locally higher totals are possible.
Understanding Rainfall Rates
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures. Small potted plants may blow over with light outdoor objects becoming airborne in stronger gusts. Tents may jump.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Major Saharan Dust Surge Now Moving Across T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Scattered rainfall is forecast on Saturday through Sunday, with isolated rainfall thereafter.
Forecast Discussion
Tropical Update
Tropical Update: All Eyes On Invest 94L
Abundant surface to low-level instability is present across Trinidad and Tobago ahead of Tropical Wave 35 and the broad area of low pressure associated with the Monsoon Trough, a similar feature to the Intertropical Convergence Zone.
On Saturday, winds are forecast to become near calm at times during the day, leading to daytime heating, sea breeze convergence triggering showers/thunderstorms across T&T, as well as showers/thunderstorms moving in from the northeast associated with Tropical Wave 35.
By nightfall, as Tropical Wave 35 moves into the Caribbean Sea, winds are forecast to move in from the south to southeast, with heavy showers and thunderstorms trailing the wave axis/low-pressure area, with stronger thunderstorms moving northward off the coast of northern Venezuela towards southern Trinidad.
On Sunday, abundant low-level moisture moving from the southeast/south, trailing instability from TW35, and upper-level divergence from developing upper-level trough in the Caribbean Sea will lead to periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms from the early morning through the late afternoon. The most favorable conditions for heavy rains will remain north of Trinidad and Tobago, but the potential for locally heavy rainfall exists across the country.
By Monday through Wednesday, a weak ridge regains dominance across T&T while southeasterly winds continue for one more day, with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic effects leading to late morning through afternoon thunderstorms and isolated showers. The Intertropical Convergence Zone will be near T&T once again by Wednesday, but fairly dry air and moderate wind shear will limit widespread rainfall.
