An active and well-defined tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles tonight (Friday), with stronger convection (showers, thunderstorms) remaining north of Trinidad and Tobago. Another tropical wave is forecast to move across the region on Sunday but will be poorly defined and weak.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Through Tuesday morning, forecast models indicate across the western half of Trinidad and across Tobago, rainfall totals between 10 and 25 millimeters are likely, while across the eastern half of Trinidad, rainfall totals up to 50 millimeters are forecast. In isolated areas, rainfall totals of up to 80 millimeters are possible through Tuesday morning, particularly in eastern areas.
— Saharan Dust: A surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move, mainly north of the country, by Sunday into next week.
— Hazards: Through early Tuesday, street/flash flooding and gusty winds are forecast to be the main hazards in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms. In and ahead of heavy showers or thunderstorms, sustained winds can reach 35 KM/H, particularly from Sunday. Wind gusts are likely to exceed 45 KM/H in heavy showers/thunderstorms, and through Tuesday, higher gusts to 50 KM/H are possible.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate, with waves in open waters ranging between 1.5 and 2.0 meters, while in sheltered areas, up to 1.0 meter and occasionally choppy.
Latest Alerts
Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Friday (PM)
Friday (PM)Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Moderate Seas, Reduced Visibility
Temperatures
Temperatures are forecast to be warm throughout the weekend, with marginally cooler conditions on Saturday due to increased cloud cover.
Wednesday through Sunday
Low: 24-27°C
High: 31-34°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to range between 31°C to 34°C, with higher temperatures across urbanized areas of Trinidad, where in built-up areas, maximum high temperatures could exceed 33°C on Sunday and Monday. Minimum lows are forecast to remain mild, ranging between 24°C and 27°C in Trinidad and Tobago, trending cooler in interior areas. The heat index will generally be near or above 34°C from Sunday.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Friday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals up to 20 millimeters across the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad and Tobago.
- Saturday: Across the western half of Trinidad, between 0 and 10 millimeters, while across Tobago, southern and eastern areas, up to 20 millimeters are possible, with isolated totals up to 25 millimeters.
- Sunday: Across the western half of Trinidad, less than 5 millimeters of rainfall is forecast, while across southern and eastern areas, as well as across Tobago, between 5 and 15 millimeters of rainfall is forecast. In isolated areas, up to 25 millimeters are possible.
- Monday Across the western half of Trinidad and across Tobago, between 5 and 10 millimeters of rainfall is forecast, while across eastern Trinidad and isolated areas of southwestern Trinidad, rainfall totals between 10 and 20 millimeters are forecast with localized totals up to 25 millimeters.
Understanding Rainfall Rates
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts, particularly on Sunday and Monday, include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures. Small potted plants may blow over with light outdoor objects becoming airborne in stronger gusts. Tents may jump. Localized power outages are possible.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Major Saharan Dust Surge Now Moving Across T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast on Friday night through Saturday, with isolated activity on Sunday and Monday.
Forecast Discussion
Tropical Wave 20 is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles overnight tonight (Friday), bringing elevated moisture, instability, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward across the country into Saturday. As a result, increased cloudiness, showers, and isolated thunderstorms are forecast. However, moderate to strong wind shear from the west remains across Trinidad and Tobago through the forecast period, keeping heavier rainfall generally east of the country and stronger showers/thunderstorms brief. A TUTT (tropical upper tropospheric trough) is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity mainly north of Trinidad and Tobago.
By Saturday night, Tropical Wave 21 is forecast to approach the region. However, this tropical wave is weak and poorly defined, and its wave axis is forecast to remain north of the country. Still, its passage will allow for a marginal increase in low-level moisture and instability across T&T on Sunday, with a surge of Saharan Dust and low-level winds mainly remaining north of the country as a surface to mid-level high-pressure system rebuilds in its wake. Mid to upper-level conditions are forecast to become increasingly dry, limiting shower and thunderstorm development.
On Monday, surface to low-level moisture is forecast to increase again, with cloudiness, showers, and isolated thunderstorms possible.
