While rainfall over the next five days is forecast to keep Saharan Dust levels at bay, mild to moderate surges of dust are expected from the middle to end of June.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: A mild to moderate concentration surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago from Wednesday, June 14th, 2023 and linger through the subsequent week, with another surge arriving across the area by June 22nd.
— Impacts: Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain between good and moderate levels, with occasional improvement during the passages of tropical waves.
— What Should You Do: Sensitive groups may need to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high-traffic periods and in the vicinity of bushfires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
The official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at San Fernando, Point Lisas, Arima, Beetham, Port of Spain, and Signal Hill, Tobago, are not reporting data at this time. However, unofficial ambient air quality monitoring stations are reporting good air quality levels, in line with current dust modeling. There is a mild concentration of Saharan Dust present.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained unaffected by Saharan Dust and smoke at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Next Surges of Saharan Dust
Mild concentrations of Saharan Dust remain present across Trinidad and Tobago on Saturday, 10th June 2023, with similar concentrations forecast to remain present through late Tuesday, June 13th, 2023.
By Wednesday, June 14th, 2023, a mild to moderate surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles, with higher concentrations affecting the region between June 15th and 19th.
Some improvement is forecast between late Monday, June 19th, 2023, through Wednesday, June 21st, 2023, with a surge of dust arriving afterward. Longer range models indicate this is also forecast to be a mild to moderate concentration surge with higher dust levels remaining north of Trinidad and Tobago.
Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain between good and moderate levels, with occasional improvement during the passages of tropical waves.
What does this mean for you?
The air quality is forecast to be lowered primarily during high traffic periods, particularly between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM and again from 3:00 PM through 6:30 PM, as well as during times of blowing smoke and dust from bushfires.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone and tropical waves and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While Tropical Waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
