Forecast models continue to indicate Saharan Dust will remain at mild to minimal levels across Trinidad, Tobago, and the Windwards through the end of May, with the next major dust surge to kick off the start of June.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: No significant surges of Saharan Dust are forecast for the next seven days across Trinidad and Tobago, with dust concentrations diminishing by Sunday, May 28th, 2023. However, a moderate to high concentration surge of Dust is forecast to arrive by Friday, June 2nd, 2023.
— Impacts: Through the next seven days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain near good levels, occasionally dipping to moderate. From Friday, June 2nd, 2023, air quality could reach levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups.
— What Should You Do: Sensitive groups may need to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high-traffic periods and in the vicinity of bushfires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
The official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at San Fernando, Point Lisas, Arima, and Signal Hill are reporting good air quality levels, with moderate air quality being reported at Beetham, Port of Spain, in line with current dust levels based on model data.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained unaffected by Saharan Dust and smoke at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Next Major Surge: June 2nd, 2023
Saharan Dust levels are set to remain at reduced levels through the next seven days.
By late Thursday, June 1st, 2023, Saharan Dust levels are set to increase, with moderate to high concentrations arriving by Friday, June 2nd, 2023, and remaining present across T&T at least through Sunday, June 4th, 2023.
Through the next seven days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain near good levels, occasionally dipping to moderate. From Friday, June 2nd, 2023, air quality could reach levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups.
What does this mean for you?
The air quality is forecast to be lowered primarily during high traffic periods, particularly between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM and again from 3:00 PM through 6:30 PM, as well as during times of blowing smoke and dust from bushfires.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone and tropical waves and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While Tropical Waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
