Forecast models indicate Saharan Dust will remain at mild to minimal levels across Trinidad, Tobago and the Windwards through the end of May, with marginal increases of dust by May 23rd through May 25th.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: No significant surges of Saharan Dust are forecast for the next 7-10 days across Trinidad and Tobago, with a moderate surge of dust forecast to arrive in the region in early June.
— Impacts: Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain near good levels, occasionally dipping to moderate.
— What Should You Do: Sensitive groups may need to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high-traffic periods and in the vicinity of bushfires.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
While none of the official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) at San Fernando, Point Lisas Beetham, Arima, and Signal Hill is reporting data, unofficial stations across Trinidad are reporting good air quality levels, in line with current dust levels based on model data.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained unaffected by Saharan Dust and smoke at the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, and the Piarco International Airport, Trinidad.
Saharan Dust Forecast
No Major Surges Through Next Ten Days
Saharan Dust levels are set to remain at reduced levels through the forecast period.
By Tuesday, May 23rd, 2023, a brief and marginal surge of dust is forecast to move across the area, subsiding by Thursday, May 25th, 2023.
Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to remain near good levels, occasionally dipping to moderate levels, particularly between May 23rd and May 25th.
What does this mean for you?
The air quality is forecast to be lowered primarily during high traffic periods, particularly between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM and again from 3:00 PM through 6:30 PM, as well as during times of blowing smoke and dust from bushfires.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone and tropical waves and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While Tropical Waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
