As Trinidad and Tobago round out 2022 and charge ahead into 2023, mostly sunny skies are forecast to be interrupted by brief showers, breezy conditions, and Saharan Dust into the weekend. While gusty winds may accompany these showers that last no more than a few minutes, no significant rainfall is expected.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Through Tuesday, generally sunny skies are forecast to be interrupted by brief showers and cloudy periods. Over the next four days, between 5 and 15 millimeters of rainfall is forecast across both islands, with totals nearing 25 millimeters, favoring eastern and southern areas of Trinidad. In isolated areas across both islands, totals may exceed 25 millimeters, particularly in eastern areas.
— Saharan Dust: A mild to moderate surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to arrive on Saturday, December 31st, 2022, and remain present through the forecast period.
— Hazards: Over the next four days, the main hazard will be wind gusts up to 45 KM/H are very likely in showers, and gusts up to or over 55 KM/H possible in heavy showers or the odd thunderstorm.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters with waves up to 2.5 meters, but in nearshore areas of eastern and northern T&T, waves can exceed 3.0 meters. Elsewhere, in sheltered areas, waves are forecast to remain near or below 1.0 meters.
Latest Alert
Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning.
The Forecast
Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayMarine: Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters with waves up to 2.5 meters, but in nearshore areas of eastern and northern T&T, waves can exceed 3.0 meters. Elsewhere, in sheltered areas, waves are forecast to remain near or below 1.0 meters.
Temperatures
Generally, over the next four days, maximum highs and minimum lows are forecast to be fairly seasonal.
Saturday through Tuesday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 29-31°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to reach 30°C with slightly warmer in urbanized areas. Minimum lows are forecast to remain near 22°C to 24°C in Trinidad and near 23°C to 25°C in Tobago. The heat index will generally remain below 38°C.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingStreet/flash flooding is not expected, with chances very low.
Forecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across the country, with isolated totals of up to 10 millimeters favoring eastern and southern coastal Trinidad.
- Sunday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across the country, with isolated totals of up to 10 millimeters favoring eastern and southern coastal Trinidad.
- Monday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across Trinidad, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters across Tobago.
- Tuesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall accumulation across the country, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters favoring eastern and southwestern Trinidad.
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsNext week, though strong thunderstorms are still not expected, as winds gradually decrease briefly by Monday, short-lived funnel cloud development is possible through Wednesday. If a funnel cloud touches down on a body of water, it becomes a waterspout; if it touches down on land, it becomes a tornado.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material, and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall, bringing down utility poles and lines.
Other Hazards
A mild to moderate surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to arrive on Saturday, December 31st, 2022, and remain present through the forecast period.
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Over the next four days, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast with showers generally remaining less than five minutes.
Forecast Discussion
Through the next four days, a high-pressure ridge is forecast to remain dominant across the Lesser Antilles while a weakening surface to low-level shear line (weakening frontal system) remains north of T&T, across the southern and central Windwards.
Through the weekend, surface-to-low-level confluencing (winds slowing and piling up like cars in a traffic jam) will lead to a marginal increase in brief light to moderate showers into next week, where an increase in low-level moisture is also expected.
Abundant Saharan Dust is forecast to be present across Trinidad and Tobago through the four-day forecast period. Combined with elevated wind shear and brisk low-level winds, rainfall is not expected to be persistent, nor are chances for heavy showers or thunderstorms high. However, cloudiness may increase by next week.
