Over the next 10 days, mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast to move across Trinidad, Tobago, and the Lesser Antilles, with higher concentrations generally remaining north and east of Trinidad and Tobago.
What you need to know
— Saharan Dust Surges: A mild and brief surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to diminish by Monday, with another brief surge for Trinidad and Tobago arriving by late Tuesday. An active Intertropical Convergence Zone is forecast to limit Saharan Dust levels by the end of the upcoming week into the weekend.
— Impacts: Through the next seven to ten days, air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago are forecast to be mainly at good levels, at times dropping to moderate levels.
— What Should You Do: Sensitive groups may need to take the necessary precautions, particularly during high-traffic periods. The general population will remain unaffected.
Current AQI Levels Across T&T
Though official air quality monitoring stations from the Environmental Management Agency (EMA) are not reporting data at this time, unofficial stations across the country show generally good to moderate air quality.
These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.
Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained at or above ten kilometers at the Piarco International Airport and the A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago, outside of shower and thunderstorm activity.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Ongoing Surge – Clearing by Monday, October 24th, 2022
A mild to moderate concentration surge of dust is forecast to move away from Trinidad, Tobago, and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles from late Monday, October 24th, 2022.
Air quality levels will fluctuate between good and moderate. Horizontal visibility is forecast to remain unaffected.
Next Surge: Late Tuesday, October 25th, 2022
A moderate-concentration surge of dust is forecast across Trinidad, Tobago, and the remainder of the Lesser Antilles from Tuesday, October 25th, 2022, with higher concentrations across the Leewards. For Trinidad and Tobago, concentrations are forecast to diminish by Thursday, October 27th, 2022 quickly, as an active Intertropical Convergence Zone moves in and remains across the islands into the upcoming weekend.
Air quality levels will fluctuate between good and moderate. Horizontal visibility may dip as low as 8 kilometers outside of shower and thunderstorm activity.
What does this mean for you?
The air quality is forecast to be lowered primarily during high traffic periods, particularly between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM and again from 3:00 PM through 6:30 PM.
We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone, tropical waves, and occasional tropical cyclones may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While Tropical Waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.
The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.
Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.
Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin in April and continue through November.
