Brief, Periodic Saharan Dust Surges Forecast Over Next 10 Days

Multiple tropical waves across the Tropical Atlantic are forecast to keep Saharan Dust mostly at bay over the next ten days, with brief surges moving across T&T following the passage of each wave.

What you need to know

Saharan Dust Surges: Following the passage of Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 on Wednesday, a moderate to high concentration surge of dust is forecast to arrive on Wednesday night and quickly subside by mid-Friday. The following dust surge is forecast to arrive late Saturday, July 2nd, 2022 with fluctuating concentrations through late Tuesday, July 5th, 2022.
Impacts: Air quality levels across Trinidad and Tobago will vary between good to moderate through the forecast period.
What Should You Do: Sensitive groups will have several days during the upcoming forecast period where good air quality is anticipated. However, they should take the necessary precautions during dust surges. The general population will remain unaffected.

Current AQI Levels Across T&T

The Environmental Management Agency (EMA) air quality monitoring stations at San Fernando, Port of Spain, Point Lisas, and Signal Hill have all recorded good to moderate air quality levels over the last 24 hours.

These measurements are based on PM2.5 (particulates the size of 2.5 micrometers and smaller, usually associated with increases in Saharan Dust, vehicle exhaust, and smoke) and PM10 particulates.

Over the last 24 hours, visibility remained near ten kilometers at the Piarco International Airport and A.N.R. Robinson International Airport at Crown Point, Tobago.

Saharan Dust Forecast

00Z Monday, June 27th, 2022, NASA GEOS-5 Dust Extinction Model Monitoring Tropical Atlantic Sulphates Aerosol Optical Total showing Saharan Dust
00Z Monday, June 27th, 2022, NASA GEOS-5 Dust Extinction Model Monitoring Tropical Atlantic Sulphates Aerosol Optical Total showing Saharan Dust

Next Surge: Late Wednesday, June 29th, 2022

A moderate to high-concentration surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday, June 29th, 2022. Dust levels will return to minimal over a brief window by mid-Friday into late Saturday.

Air quality levels will vary between good to moderate, with the visibility near ten kilometers outside of shower or thunderstorm activity.

Surge #2: Late Saturday, July 2nd, 2022

Following Tropical Wave 13 on Friday into Saturday, another surge of dust is forecast to move across the region. Moderate concentrations are forecast to linger through Tuesday, July 6th, 2022.

Air quality levels will vary from good to moderate, with the visibility dropping to eight kilometers outside of shower or thunderstorm activity.

What does this mean for you?

The air quality will be degraded through the forecast period. During high traffic periods, particularly between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM, and again from 3:00 PM through 6:30 PM, air quality may be further reduced in localized areas.

According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, “the 2022 Saharan Dust Haze Season is likely to peak from June to August with the number of Saharan dust haze days expected to increase significantly. The duration of the plumes of Saharan dust haze visiting both islands is also likely to be more prolonged than earlier in the year, with increased odds for higher dust haze concentration during plumes visitation.”

We’re in a period where the Intertropical Convergence Zone and Tropical Waves may shield Trinidad and Tobago from the Saharan Dust events. While tropical waves play a notable role in moving dust across the Atlantic and the Eastern Caribbean, these periodic tropical waves also improve air quality.

The concentration of the dust that follows the wave depends on its strength as it moves off the West African Coast. This is because of stronger thunderstorms across Central Africa. As strong winds move downward and outward from these thunderstorms, the wind kicks up dust as it moves across parts of the Saharan Desert and transports it into the upper atmosphere. This “plume” of dust follows the axis of the wave as it progresses westward into the Atlantic.

Dust that makes it into the upper levels of the atmosphere can then get transported across the Atlantic Ocean. The plumes of dust eventually affect the Eastern Caribbean.

Larger, more concentrated plumes of Saharan dust begin to occur in April and continue through November.

Read More

Staying Safe From Saharan Dust

Believe it or not, Saharan Dust can be present in T&T year-round. Concentrations wax and wane depending on prevailing weather features in the area. It also depends on if there are…

The Air Quality Index

In all of our Saharan Dust forecasts, we use the Air Quality Index (AQI) to quickly surmise the possible impacts on the population. What is the Air Quality Index? The AQI is an index for…
Related Posts