Tropical Storm Gonzalo Key Messages:
– Watches & Warnings: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Tobago. A Hazardous Seas Alert is in effect for the eastern and northern coastal waters of Trinidad as well as all coastal waters of Tobago. As Gonzalo’s track shifts southward, a late-notice tropical storm warning is possible, though the difference in anticipated impacts will be negligible.
– Weather: Activity is forecast to begin across Tobago late Friday night and across Trinidad after midnight into Saturday. Peak activity is expected late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon across both islands. Conditions to settle by nightfall.
– Intensity: Across Trinidad, wind gusts in excess of 65 KM/H are likely in heavier showers or thunderstorms. Across Tobago, wind gusts in excess of 85 KM/H are expected.
– Rainfall: As of Friday night, direct and indirect impacts are forecast, with the overall forecast rainfall totals increased. Slight adjustments in the track may have significant changes in the rainfall forecast. Generally, between 50-100 millimeters of rainfall is forecast Friday through Sunday, with isolated totals in excess of 150 millimeters in areas of persisting heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity, mainly across northern, eastern Trinidad and Tobago.
– Flooding: Street flooding and flash flooding in heavy to violent showers and thunderstorms are likely. There is a medium chance of riverine flooding.
– Landslides: There is a medium to high risk of landslides across Trinidad and a very high risk across Tobago.
– Seas: Seas are forecast to deteriorate on Friday night, with waves up to 2.5 meters, occasionally up to 3.0 meters into Saturday. Mainly on Saturday, forecast to be moderate to rough, with waves up to 3.0 meters, occasionally very rough, up to 4.0 meters in open waters. In sheltered areas, up to 1.5 meters and choppy. A Hazardous Seas Alert in effect.
The Adverse Weather Alert
As we’ve been monitoring, Tropical Storm Gonzalo is forecast to move near Trinidad and Tobago on Saturday, July 25th, 2020. With southward trending tracks on Friday, the potential for adverse weather has increased.
Because of this, the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service upgraded the Yellow-Level Adverse Weather Alert to Orange Level on Friday night at 10:26 PM
This alert will begin at 11:00 AM Saturday, July 25th, 2020, through 8:00 PM Saturday, July 25th, 2020.
TOBAGO IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
“There is a high (70%) chance of heavy showers or thunderstorms during the period, which may lead to street/flash flooding as well as landslides/landslips in areas so prone. Gusty winds in excess of 65km/h can also be experienced in the vicinity of heavy downpours. This event is related to instability associated with the passage of Tropical Storm Gonzalo.” according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. This “alert” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is likely.
The color of the alert indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is orange. This means that the hazard is likely, and you need to be aware of the impacts of street/flash flooding and gusty winds in your area. Areas prone to landslides should also be aware of the hazards and impacts.
In this orange-level alert, severe impacts are possible. These include the loss of a single life or serious injuries where physical defenses (sandbags) are needed. There may be major losses in confined areas, and income earning may be impossible for several days. Several communities may be affected, with external help needed for recovery.
