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Tropical Wave 12 Forecast To Move Across Lesser Antilles

July 3, 2025
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While it looks impressive on satellite imagery, Tropical Wave 12 is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night into Friday, bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, most of the activity is forecast to remain north and east of Trinidad and Tobago, with Tobago expected to receive higher rainfall totals.

What you need to know

— Rainfall: Over the next five days, through Monday night, overall rainfall accumulations across Trinidad are forecast to range between 10 and 25 millimeters, with isolated totals between 25 and 50 millimeters, favoring southern, eastern, and western coastal areas. Across Tobago, between 25 and 50 millimeters of rainfall is forecast. Across both islands, in highly isolated areas where thunderstorms occur, locally higher totals are possible.
— Saharan Dust: For T&T, a moderate to high concentration surge of Saharan Dust is forecast to move in by mid-Friday, with significantly higher concentrations north of the country, moving in across the Lesser Antilles from Friday morning. High dust levels are forecast across the region through Sunday, with mild dust levels expected on Monday.
— Hazards: Mainly from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon, in heavy showers or thunderstorms, locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated street/flash flooding, particularly across Tobago, with gusty winds possible. Mainly in Tobago, landslides are likely during this period. On Friday, funnel clouds are possible across Trinidad, with a higher likelihood in southern and western areas of the island. From Friday afternoon through Monday, degraded air quality and warm temperatures, along with high heat indices, will be the primary hazards.
— Marine: Slight to moderate seas are forecast in Trinidad and Tobago’s open waters, while near calm conditions are forecast in sheltered areas. All marine interests are advised to exercise caution in the vicinity of heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly Thursday night through Friday.

Latest Alerts

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.

The Forecast

Thursday

Thursday
4 10 0 1
Initially mostly sunny, slightly hazy, and warm across both islands, with a few isolated showers moving across Trinidad by mid-morning through the afternoon, favoring southern, western, and hilly areas. Across Tobago, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from mid-morning continuing through the afternoon, interrupting partly cloudy skies. An initially settled night across both islands, with showers and thunderstorms likely nearing midnight across Tobago and eastern Trinidad.
Initially mostly sunny, slightly hazy, and warm across both islands, with a few isolated showers moving across Trinidad by mid-morning through the afternoon, favoring southern, western, and hilly areas. Across Tobago, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible from mid-morning continuing through the afternoon, interrupting partly cloudy skies. An initially settled night across both islands, with showers and thunderstorms likely nearing midnight across Tobago and eastern Trinidad.
4/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low – Medium

Friday

Friday
6 10 0 1
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across both islands after midnight through dawn, with stronger activity favoring northern and eastern Trinidad, as well as Tobago. Conditions become increasingly hazy across both islands after daybreak, with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm initially favoring southern and western Trinidad, then eastern and northern areas, during the late morning through afternoon. A significant surge of Saharan Dust moves in throughout the day, increasing in concentrations into the night with generally settled conditions.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across both islands after midnight through dawn, with stronger activity favoring northern and eastern Trinidad, as well as Tobago. Conditions become increasingly hazy across both islands after daybreak, with isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm initially favoring southern and western Trinidad, then eastern and northern areas, during the late morning through afternoon. A significant surge of Saharan Dust moves in throughout the day, increasing in concentrations into the night with generally settled conditions.
6/10
Thunderstorm Chances (AM Friday)
Medium – High

Saturday

Saturday
3 10 0 1
Dull, hazy and hot conditions interrupted by the isolated mid-morning through afternoon showers and the odd thunderstorm, favoring southern and western areas of both islands. Hazy and settled conditions return into the night.
Dull, hazy and hot conditions interrupted by the isolated mid-morning through afternoon showers and the odd thunderstorm, favoring southern and western areas of both islands. Hazy and settled conditions return into the night.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Sunday

Sunday
2 10 0 1
Mostly hot, sunny, hazy and slightly breezy day across both islands, barring isolated showers favoring southern and eastern areas throughout the day, and western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. There is a low chance of one of these afternoon showers becoming heavy or a short-lived thunderstorm. A mostly settled night.
Mostly hot, sunny, hazy and slightly breezy day across both islands, barring isolated showers favoring southern and eastern areas throughout the day, and western coastal Trinidad during the afternoon. There is a low chance of one of these afternoon showers becoming heavy or a short-lived thunderstorm. A mostly settled night.
2/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Very Low – Low

Monday

Monday
3 10 0 1
Mostly hot, sunny, hazy and slightly breezy day across both islands. From the late morning through the afternoon, isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm (low to medium chance) are possible, favoring southern, western and, hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly settled night with increasing haziness.
Mostly hot, sunny, hazy and slightly breezy day across both islands. From the late morning through the afternoon, isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm (low to medium chance) are possible, favoring southern, western and, hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly settled night with increasing haziness.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Marine Forecast

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Temperatures

Thursday

Low: 24-26°C

High: 31-33°C

Feels Like: 35-42°C

Friday

Low: 25-27°C

High: 30-32°C

Feels Like: 35-40°C

Saturday

Low: 25-27°C

High: 31-33°C

Feels Like: 35-42°C

Sunday

Low: 25-27°C

High: 32-34°C

Feels Like: 35-48°C

Monday

Low: 25-27°C

High: 32-34°C

Feels Like: 35-48°C

Forecast Impacts

Flooding

Over the next five days, through Monday night, overall rainfall accumulations across Trinidad are forecast to range between 10 and 25 millimeters, with isolated totals between 25 and 50 millimeters, favoring southern, eastern, and western coastal areas. Across Tobago, between 25 and 50 millimeters of rainfall is forecast. Across both islands, in highly isolated areas where thunderstorms occur, locally higher totals are possible.

Street & Flash Flooding

Street & Flash Flooding
5 10 0 1
Isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast, which may result in localized and short-lived street/flash flooding, mainly from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
Isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecast, which may result in localized and short-lived street/flash flooding, mainly from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
5/10
Likelihood
Medium

Riverine Flooding

Riverine Flooding
1 10 0 1
Riverine flooding is not expected.
Riverine flooding is not expected.
1/10
Likelihood
Very Low

Forecast Rainfall Totals

  • Thursday: Across most of Trinidad, less than 5 millimeters, with isolated totals up to 15 millimeters favoring northern, eastern, and western coastal areas. Across Tobago, between 10 and 20 millimeters of rain are forecast, with isolated totals of up to 30 millimeters possible.
  • Friday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters of rainfall across both islands with isolated higher totals favoring western and northern Trinidad, as well as across Tobago.
  • Saturday: Less than 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals between 5 and 15 millimeters favoring western areas of Trinidad.
  • Sunday: Less than 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals between 5 and 15 millimeters favoring western areas of Trinidad and Tobago.
  • Monday: Less than 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated higher totals favoring western Trinidad.

Understanding Rainfall Accumulations

Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.

Strong Thunderstorms

Strong Thunderstorms
3 10 0 1
While strong thunderstorms are not expected, locally heavy to violent rainfall rates are possible between Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. With a light wind regime forecast on Friday, there is the low to medium potential for funnel cloud development, favoring but not limited to western Trinidad.
While strong thunderstorms are not expected, locally heavy to violent rainfall rates are possible between Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. With a light wind regime forecast on Friday, there is the low to medium potential for funnel cloud development, favoring but not limited to western Trinidad.
3/10
Likelihood
Low
What is a strong or severe thunderstorm?

Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:

  • Damaging wind gusts exceeding 63 KM/H;
  • Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
  • Hail (of any size);
  • Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
  • The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.

Gusty Winds

Gusty Winds
5 10 0 1
Overall winds over the next five days are forecast to be anomalously light, with sustained winds below 20 KM/H. However, in heavy showers and thunderstorms between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, wind gusts to 50 KM/H are possible.
Overall winds over the next five days are forecast to be anomalously light, with sustained winds below 20 KM/H. However, in heavy showers and thunderstorms between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon, wind gusts to 50 KM/H are possible.
5/10
Likelihood
Medium

With wind gusts exceeding 50 KM/H, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.

Other Hazards

High to significant concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast from Friday afternoon through Sunday. Hot temperatures are also forecast over the weekend, with heat indices reaching levels that warrant caution throughout the forecast period.

Saharan Dust Forecast

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Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is that the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than for isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all people and areas can expect rainfall.

Scattered rainfall is forecast from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with isolated rainfall during all other periods over the next five days.

Forecast Discussion

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

Tropical Waves (As of 2:00 AM July 3rd)

— Tropical Wave 12: Located along 52W from 15N, moving west around 10 knots (18 km/h) with scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move across the country and the Windwards on Thursday night through Friday, with much of the stronger activity moving north of Trinidad, affecting Tobago and the southern Windward Islands. There is a modest surge of winds near the wave axis, enhancing convergence.
— Tropical Wave 13: Located along 41W from 15N southward, moving west at around 10-15 knots (18 to 28 km/h), forecast to move across T&T on Monday night through Tuesday morning.
— Tropical Wave 14: Located along 27W from 16N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 knots (18-28 km/h), forecast to move across the region by next Wednesday.

An active tropical wave (TW12) is nearing the Lesser Antilles, with scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong). While Trinidad and Tobago will experience an increase in cloudiness from Thursday afternoon as this wave approaches, most of the stronger convection (showers and thunderstorms) is forecast to remain north of the country, where upper-level conditions are more favorable, with the southernmost activity affecting Tobago. It will decrease winds across Trinidad, with winds at times from the south to southeast on Friday. Combined with warm temperatures and west-coast convergence, these veering winds through the atmosphere may lead to short-lived funnel clouds across western Trinidad on Friday afternoon.

While prolific rainfall totals are not forecast for Trinidad, this wave is forecast to produce between 25 and 50 millimeters of rainfall across Tobago to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, with locally higher totals between Grenada and St. Vincent. For T&T, peak wind gusts are forecast to be near 50 km/h, while for Grenada to St. Vincent, winds could gust up to 60 km/h.

On the heels of this tropical wave is a significant surge of Saharan Dust moving in with a ridge of high pressure across the Lesser Antilles. Dust levels will be particularly significant for the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, where air quality is likely to hit unhealthy levels. Across Trinidad and Tobago, lying on the southern extent of this ridge, a marginal increase in low-level convergence and moisture advection will keep isolated showers and the odd thunderstorm on tap for both Saturday and, to a lesser extent, on Sunday.

By Monday, Tropical Wave 13 is expected to move into the area, while deep tropical moisture is forecast to move in across T&T overnight, extending into Tuesday. As a result, another mostly sunny Monday will lead to an increase in cloudiness, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly on Tuesday.

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