A strong high-pressure system in the Atlantic is forecast to continue bringing strong low-level winds across the country over the week and weekend. As a result, breezy to windy conditions are forecast, with brisk showers bringing gusty winds.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, through Monday, February 17th, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 5 and 20 millimeters. Lower totals are forecast across the western halves of Trinidad and Tobago with high totals across the northeastern portions of both islands. In eastern coastal areas, isolated totals up to 35 millimeters are forecast.
— Saharan Dust: Mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations are forecast through the next five days.
— Hazards: Over the next five days, outside of marine hazards, strong low-level winds with gusts exceeding 55 KM/H, mainly accompanying showers, are forecast to reach levels capable of producing minor wind damage such as downing large, weaker trees and causing lighter outdoor objects to become airborne.
— Marine: Rough seas are forecast in Trinidad and Tobago’s open waters, while choppy conditions are forecast in sheltered areas. All marine interests are advised to exercise caution over the next five to seven days.
Latest Alerts
High Wind Alert In Effect For T&T Until 6PM Monday
Hazardous Seas Alert Issued For T&T: Rough Seas Forecast For Next 7 Days
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Tuesday Night
Tuesday NightWednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMarine Forecast
Rough Seas Forecast Over Next 7 Days For T&T
Temperatures
Wednesday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Thursday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Friday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Saturday
Low: 22-24°C
High: 30-31°C
Sunday
Low: 23-25°C
High: 30-31°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
Over the next five days, through Monday, February 17th, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 5 and 20 millimeters. Lower totals are forecast across the western halves of Trinidad and Tobago with high totals across the northeastern portions of both islands. In eastern coastal areas, isolated totals up to 35 millimeters are forecast.
Street & Flash Flooding
Street & Flash FloodingRiverine Flooding
Riverine FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Wednesday Little to no accumulating rainfall across the country, with less than 5 millimeters possible, favoring northeastern areas.
- Thursday: Little to no accumulating rainfall across the country, with less than 5 millimeters possible, favoring northeastern areas.
- Friday: Little to no accumulating rainfall across the country, with less than 5 millimeters possible, favoring northeastern and southwestern areas.
- Saturday: Up to 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals up to 10 millimeters favoring eastern areas.
- Sunday: Up to 5 millimeters across the country, with isolated totals up to 10 millimeters favoring northern and eastern areas.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 63 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
With strong winds, the main hazards are across the marine areas, discussed at length in the marine forecast and Hazardous Seas Alert.
Saharan Dust Forecast
Fluctuating Saharan Dust Concentrations Forecast For T&T Over Next 10 Days
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Isolated rainfall is forecast over the next five days.
Forecast Discussion
Over the next five days, the dominant feature across Trinidad and Tobago will be a north-central Atlantic high-pressure system with dominant winds from the east. This strong ridge is generating steady, moderate to strong surface to mid-level winds, agitating seas and creating breezy to windy conditions across T&T and the Lesser Antilles since Monday through next Monday. Within the ridge flow will be pockets of moisture and convergence (low-level cloud patches) that will bring brisk showers and brief cloudy periods to the country.
Winds are forecast to be strong, up to 30 knots or 55 KM/H, particularly from Wednesday through Saturday, pushing showers and cloudy patches along at a similar speed westward. As a result, in and ahead of showers, gusty winds are likely to exceed 55 KM/H, mainly across Tobago and northern and eastern halves of Trinidad, or where moderate to short-lived heavy rainfall occur.
Global models (lower resolution) shows sustained winds between 35 and 45 KM/H (most likely maximum 40 KM/H), with maximum wind gusts up to 55 KM/H most likely. Though it is a lower likelihood, given storm motions are forecast to be up to 30 knots, and winds aloft are also forecast to be between 30 and 35 knots, higher-resolution models are showing offshore gusts up to 65 KM/H. This is a much lower likelihood scenario, but worth noting, particularly for northern and eastern coastlines.
Winds of this strength can be damaging to weaker structures, large and weaker trees, and may also cause utility lines to “dance” – all of which can lead to localized power outages. The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued a High Wind Alert for the country as well as a Hazardous Seas Alert, both through 6:00 PM Monday, February 17th, 2025.
Some mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust are also forecast to be present during the forecast period bringing hazy skies.
Into the weekend, moisture levels are forecast to marginally increase, being advected from the southeast, leading to an increase in some cloudy periods and showers Saturday night through Sunday.
Looking ahead for the remainder of February, as the North Atlantic Oscillation’s phase turns positive, stronger trade winds are forecast, which is normal for the Dry Season. As a result, these wind events and possible trade wind surges are to become more common in the coming weeks.
