Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to experience a wet and windy end to the week as a series of weather features track across the area. While overall rainfall accumulations aren’t excessively wet, street/flash flooding is possible in heavy downpours, with an elevated risk of gusty winds, particularly between Thursday and Saturday.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, through Sunday, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 25 and 50 millimeters, with isolated totals up to 100 millimeters, favoring predominantly eastern Trinidad. Brief but heavy rainfall is likely on Thursday through Friday.
— Saharan Dust: Mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations are likely through the forecast period.
— Hazards: Mainly Thursday through Saturday, the main hazards will be gusty winds exceeding 55 KM/H accompanying shower and thunderstorm activity. Locally heavy rainfall during this period may also produce short-lived street/flash flooding. From Sunday, conditions settle across the area, and no significant meteorological hazards are forecast.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters through Saturday, occasionally rough in northeastern waters. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to be up to 1.5 meters through Saturday, with locally choppy/rough conditions in the vicinity of heavy showers/thunderstorms. From Sunday, slight to moderate seas are forecast in open waters with smooth conditions in sheltered areas.
Latest Alert
Adverse Weather Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Thursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayMarine Forecast
Sea Forecast: Increasing Winds To Agitate Seas Into Weekend
Temperatures
Thursday
Low: 26-28°C
High: 30-32°C
Friday
Low: 23-25°C
High: 29-31°C
Saturday
Low: 23-25°C
High: 31-33°C
Sunday
Low: 25-27°C
High: 31-33°C
Monday
Low: 25-27°C
High: 31-33°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
Over the next five days, through Sunday, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 25 and 50 millimeters, with isolated totals up to 100 millimeters, favoring predominantly eastern Trinidad. Heavy rainfall is likely on Thursday through Friday.
Street & Flash Flooding
Street & Flash FloodingRiverine Flooding
Riverine FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Thursday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters of rainfall across the country, with locally high totals between 25 and 50 millimeters favoring the eastern half of Trinidad and local totals up to 25 millimeters along southern and western coastal Trinidad.
- Friday: Across the western half of Trinidad and Tobago, between 0 and 15 millimeters of rainfall, while across the eastern half of both islands, between 5 and 20 millimeters of rainfall. Isolated totals across the eastern halves of both islands and western coastal Trinidad can exceed 25 millimeters.
- Saturday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with isolated totals up to 15 millimeters favoring eastern Trinidad.
- Sunday: Between 0 and 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with totals up to 15 millimeters favoring isolated areas across Trinidad’s western and southern halves.
- Monday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, with isolated totals up to 10 millimeters favoring northeastern Trinidad and Tobago.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 63 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith winds gusting above 55 KM/H, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump. Unsecured roofs may suffer damage.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Short-Lived Saharan Dust Surge From Thursday into Weekend
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast through Friday, with isolated rainfall through Monday.
Forecast Discussion
An area of low-level convergence ahead of a trade-wind surge is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago tonight (Wednesday) through the first half of Thursday, supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms. Wind shear is forecast to be moderate, with low-level winds moderate to strong, leading to quick-moving showers and thunderstorm activity.
From Thursday afternoon, winds are forecast to steadily increase, with stronger wind gusts in showers and thunderstorm activity as Tropical Wave 48 and the accompanying trade wind surge move across Trinidad and Tobago in the evening and overnight. Based on the latest forecast models, as of Wednesday night, wind gusts up to 55 KM/H are likely, with gusts up to 65 KM/H possible as stronger winds higher in the atmosphere make it to the surface in showers/thunderstorms. This trade wind surge, based on satellite-derived data on Wednesday evening, already has winds of 55 KM/H accompanying showers and thunderstorms over the ocean.
The most intense activity associated with this tropical wave is forecast to occur between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. Due to the strong low-level winds, periodic shower and thunderstorm activity is likely, but rainfall duration will be short.
By Saturday, low-level winds will begin to decrease, but sufficient moisture will remain, leading to the usual isolated late morning through afternoon showers and brief thunderstorms generally favoring Trinidad. As a weak ridge rebuilds, albeit with a weak surface to low-level trough passing through on Sunday, this pattern is forecast to hold into Monday, with some drier air arriving overnight into Tuesday.
With the potential for strong wind gusts, keep an eye out for any official alerts from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.
