Over the next five days, partly to mostly cloudy and hot mornings are forecast to be interrupted by rapidly developing late morning through afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which can become locally strong/severe from Thursday through the weekend.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, through Sunday, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 25 and 50 millimeters, with totals trending between 75 and 100 millimeters, favoring Trinidad. Daily, favoring Trinidad, rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimeters are likely in highly isolated areas, particularly Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.
— Saharan Dust: Through Thursday, mild to moderate Saharan Dust concentrations are likely, with little to no dust forecast through Sunday.
— Hazards: Daily, particularly from Wednesday, locally heavy rainfall is likely in heavy showers/thunderstorms, producing localized street/flash flooding. Gusty winds up to 50 KM/H, as well as frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, are also possible. Seas in the Gulf of Paria may also become locally choppy due to heavy downpours, particularly from Friday. From late morning through afternoons on Friday, funnel clouds are possible along Trinidad’s western coastal areas and the Gulf of Paria. If these funnel clouds touch down over water, they become a waterspout, and if they do over land, they become a tornado, though this is rare.
— Marine: Generally, slight seas are forecast through Sunday.
Latest Alert
Adverse Weather Alert In Effect For T&T As Tropical Disturbance Nears Region
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Tuesday PM
Tuesday PMWednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Anomalously Light Winds Lead To Mostly Tranquil Seas
Temperatures
Tuesday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Wednesday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 30-33°C
Thursday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 33-35°C
Friday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-34°C
Saturday
Low: 23-25°C
High: 29-31°C
Sunday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 33-35°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
Over the next five days, through Sunday, overall rainfall accumulations across the country are forecast to range between 25 and 50 millimeters, with totals trending between 75 and 100 millimeters, favoring Trinidad. Daily, favoring Trinidad, rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimeters are likely in highly isolated areas, particularly Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.
Street & Flash Flooding
Street & Flash FloodingRiverine Flooding
Riverine FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Wednesday: Less than 10 millimeters of rainfall across the country, with isolated higher totals of up to 25 millimeters favoring western coastal and northern areas of Trinidad. Locally higher totals are possible in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Thursday: Less than 10 millimeters of rainfall across the country, with isolated higher totals of up to 25 millimeters favoring western and southern coastal and northern areas of Trinidad. Locally higher totals are possible in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Friday: Across Tobago, less than 5 millimeters, with rainfall totals ranging between 15 and 25 millimeters across Trinidad, with isolated higher totals across the island. Locally higher totals are possible in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Saturday: Across both islands, between 10 and 25 millimeters of rainfall. Locally higher totals are possible in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Sunday: Across both islands, between 10 and 25 millimeters of rainfall. Locally higher totals are possible in isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith winds gusting above 50 KM/H, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Fluctuating Concentrations of Saharan Dust Forecast For T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Over the next five days, generally isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast.
Forecast Discussion
Overnight tonight through Wednesday, Tropical Wave 33 is forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago, with most of the heavier showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave axis remaining north of the country. However, it will interact with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)/monsoon trough – a feature like the ITCZ, with southwesterly winds meeting northeasterly winds. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are likely during the early morning through mid-afternoon on Wednesday.
From Thursday through the weekend, the pattern remains the same as the ITCZ/monsoon trough, which remains near and across T&T. As a result, winds will be light to at times from the south, especially during the late morning through the afternoon and overnight hours. This will lead to northward-moving showers and thunderstorms, which have two implications.
The first will be evening showers and thunderstorms off of northern Venezuela, moving northward overnight towards T&T and into the Gulf of Paria. This will lead to larger-than-usual waves, particularly along south-facing coastlines and choppy seas in usually tranquil areas.
Secondly, strong daytime heating and sea breeze convergence will trigger cloud, shower, and thunderstorm development, particularly during the late morning through the afternoon. As activity gets pushed over the Central and Northern Ranges from the south to the north, showers and thunderstorms will likely intensify, particularly along the East-West Corridor and the western half of Trinidad.
Light steering currents, which move showers and thunderstorms through the atmosphere, are forecast, which will also compound the locally heavy rainfall threat in highly isolated areas.
Given that the ITCZ will be across T&T and activity associated with the ITCZ peaks during the early morning hours, as well as top models showing a relatively saturated low-level environment, locally isolated heavy rainfall is possible, but widespread heavy rainfall is not likely. Keep an eye out for any official alerts from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.
