Trinidad and, to a lesser extent, Tobago are forecast to see an increase in cloudiness, isolated showers, and even the odd thunderstorm or two, mainly Friday into Saturday morning. However, high to significant concentrations of Saharan Dust, combined with strong wind shear, are forecast to limit persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, through Monday, between 10 and 20 millimeters of rainfall are forecast across most of Trinidad and Tobago, with overall totals nearing 50 millimeters possible across the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad and isolated western coastal areas. Between Friday and Saturday, when most rainfall is forecast, isolated totals of up to 75 millimeters are possible, mainly in areas of isolated heavy showers/thunderstorms.
— Saharan Dust: Moderate to high concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast through Friday, with high to significant concentrations forecast from mid-Saturday.
— Hazards: Mainly on Thursday afternoon and again from Friday through Saturday morning, the main hazards will be short-lived, localized street/flash flooding in heavy showers/thunderstorms, which may be accompanied by gusty winds exceeding 45 KM/H, as well as lightning in thunderstorm activity. Throughout the forecast period, Saharan Dust is forecast to reduce air quality, especially from mid-Saturday.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate over the next five days, with waves in open waters generally between 1.5 and 2.0 meters, occasionally higher in northeastern areas. In sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be up to 1.0 meters and choppy in showers/rain and thunderstorms.
Latest Alert
Adverse Weather Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Thursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayMarine Forecast
Sea Forecast: Increasing Winds To Agitate Seas Into Weekend
Temperatures
Thursday
Low: 24-27°C
High: 32-34°C
Friday
Low: 23-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Saturday
Low: 23-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Sunday
Low: 23-27°C
High: 31-33°C
Monday
Low: 23-27°C
High: 32-34°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Thursday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across most areas of the country, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters across southern and western coastal areas of Trinidad.
- Friday: Between 5 and 10 millimeters of rainfall are forecast across Tobago. For Trinidad, between 5 and 15 millimeters are forecast across mainly western coastal areas and the southern and eastern halves of the island, with isolated totals nearing 30 millimeters trending higher across the southern and western halves of Trinidad.
- Saturday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters of rainfall are forecast across both islands. Across Trinidad, totals up to 25 millimeters are forecast favoring the southern and eastern halves of Trinidad, as well as western coastal areas. However, most of this rainfall is forecast from midnight through midday Saturday, and in locally intense showers/thunderstorms, highly isolated rainfall totals may exceed 30 millimeters.
- Sunday: Little to no rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago.
- Monday: Little to no rainfall across most of the country, with isolated totals up to 5 millimeters along eastern coastal areas of both islands.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith winds gusting to 50 KM/H and occasionally above, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Short-Lived Saharan Dust Surge From Thursday into Weekend
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
On Thursday afternoon and again between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast. Outside of this period, highly isolated rainfall is possible.
Forecast Discussion
On Thursday, a surface-to-low-level ridge is forecast to remain dominant across Trinidad and Tobago with a southeasterly to southerly flow, advecting low-level moisture across the country. In tandem, a moderate to high concentration surge of Saharan Dust will remain present across T&T and the Windward Islands, leading to fairly dry low to mid-levels of the atmosphere. A marginally favorable mid to upper-level pattern will support isolated shower activity, with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic effects supporting the odd isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm along western and southern coastal Trinidad. Strong wind shear will limit any persisting activity through the forecast period.
On Friday through mid-Saturday, a low-pressure area well northeast of the Lesser Antilles will lead to the development of a surface-to-low-level trough east and across the Lesser Antilles. As a result, abundant, deep-layered moisture is forecast to move in from the southeast/south, with marginally favorable low-level convergence and upper-level divergence producing cloudiness, isolated thunderstorms, and isolated to scattered showers. A few of these showers and thunderstorms may briefly become locally intense, particularly on Friday afternoon and early Saturday morning, but strong wind shear will limit persisting activity.
While models show the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere will remain fairly moist, the mid-to-low levels will warm and dry out as a major surge of Saharan Dust moves in across T&T and the Windwards, with an accompanying trade wind surge. This surge of trade winds will aid convergence early Saturday morning through midday, but as dust concentrations increase, conditions will become breezy, hazy, and stable through the afternoon.
By Sunday, a west Atlantic high-pressure system regains dominance, leading to settled, hazy/dusty, and breezy conditions across Trinidad and Tobago.
Note that as an extended forecast goes further into the future, it is normal for the certainty to be reduced relative to the extended period.
The Barbados Meteorological Service has analyzed the first Tropical Wave for 2024, while the National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch keeps this feature as a surface-to-low-level trough as of Thursday morning. Regardless of the type – this feature is forecast to track across the Atlantic and generally move south of Trinidad and Tobago by April 23rd through April 24th. Forecast models do not indicate any significant (or even notable accumulating rainfall) from this system during this period.
