March is usually the driest and windiest month of the year in Trinidad and Tobago, and based on rainfall records in Trinidad, it is living up to its name. This weekend, a surge of modest low-level moisture and winds may produce some brief isolated showers.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, less than 10 millimeters of rainfall is forecast across the western halves of both islands, while up to 30 millimeters of rainfall is forecast across the eastern halves of both islands. Note that most of the rainfall accumulations are forecast to occur between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning.
— Saharan Dust: Mild to moderate Saharan Dust is forecast to be present across T&T through the forecast period, moving in from Saturday.
— Hazards: The main hazards, primarily through Tuesday, will be elevated sustained winds, up to 35 KM/H, and gusts between 45 KM/H and 55 KM/H, particularly in showers/rain. Flooding is not expected as rainfall is forecast to be fairly brief.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate, with waves in open waters generally between 1.5 and 2.0 meters, occasionally reaching up to 2.5 meters in northeastern waters this weekend through Tuesday. In sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be up to 1.5 meters and choppy in showers/rain.
Latest Alert
Adverse Weather Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Saturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayMarine Forecast
Sea Forecast: Increasing Winds To Agitate Seas Into Weekend
Temperatures
Satruday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-33.5°C
Sunday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 31-32°C
Monday
Low: 23-25°C
High: 32-33°C
Tuesday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-33.5°C
Wednesday
Low: 24-26°C
High: 32-34°C
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with totals nearing 5 to 10 millimeters across eastern areas of Trinidad.
- Sunday: Across the western half of Trinidad, little to no accumulating rainfall, but isolated totals up to 5 millimeters are possible. Across the eastern half of Trinidad, between 5 and 10 millimeters are forecast, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters in northeastern areas. Across Tobago, less than 5 millimeters are forecast.
- Monday: Little to no rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated totals up to 5 millimeters across northeastern Trinidad and Tobago.
- Tuesday: Little to no rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated totals up to 5 millimeters across northeastern Trinidad and Tobago. Isolated higher amounts are possible across northeastern Trinidad.
- Wednesday: Little to no rainfall across T&T, with trace rainfall accumulations likely.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith winds gusting to 55 KM/H and occasionally above, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Short-Lived Saharan Dust Surge From Thursday into Weekend
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Highly isolated rainfall is forecast throughout the next five days, with isolated rainfall across both islands on Saturday into Sunday.
Forecast Discussion
Trinidad and Tobago will be located on the periphery of an eastward-moving high-pressure system anchored in the north-central Atlantic Ocean for the next five days. In addition, the low to upper-level environment is forecast to be fairly dry and stable. At the low to surface levels of the atmosphere, winds are forecast to increase through the weekend, with a surge in modest precipitable water.
As a result of surface-to-low-level confluence and convergence on the periphery of this high-pressure system, coupled with available modest moisture, an increase in cloudiness and fast-moving showers are forecast mainly from late morning Saturday through Sunday evening.
Thereafter, a fairly dry atmosphere is forecast to return, with passing showers favoring eastern areas as a result of pockets of low-level convergence/confluence creating low-level cloud patches.
It should be noted that particularly on Sunday, these fast-moving showers could become briefly heavy, and produce gusty winds, in addition to the generally breezy to windy day.
Note that as an extended forecast goes further into the future, it is normal for the certainty to be reduced relative to the extended period.
