A deep-layered trough system across the Lesser Antilles is forecast to maintain unstable conditions across the region. This trough system will interact with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (south of T&T), with the potential for heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms. As a result, street/flash flooding will be a concern near-daily, with gusty winds accompanying heavy/violent rainfall.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Over the next five days, between 25 and 75 millimeters are forecast across T&T, with higher totals trending across eastern Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas across eastern Trinidad and Tobago, up to 150 millimeters are forecast over the five days. In highly isolated heavy showers and thunderstorms, 24-hour rainfall totals could exceed 50 millimeters.
— Saharan Dust: Little to no Saharan Dust is forecast across T&T over the next five days.
— Hazards: The main hazards into the weekend will originate from heavy showers and thunderstorms, producing cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds up to 50 KM/H, and periods of heavy/violent rainfall, which can trigger street/flash flooding. Though concerns are low now, eastern river basins will be monitored closely. In elevated areas of northern and southern Trinidad, as well as Tobago, landslides are also possible, particularly as the week progresses.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate, with waves in open waters generally reaching as high as 2.0 meters through the week. In sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be up to 1.0 meter but choppy in heavy showers and thunderstorms and along north-facing coastlines of T&T.
Latest Alert
Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T
Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.
The Forecast
Monday night
Monday nightTuesday
TuesdayWednesday
WednesdayThursday
ThursdayFriday
FridaySaturday
SaturdayMarine Forecast
Seas Forecast: Moderate Seas, Reduced Visibility
Temperatures
Tuesday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 29-31°C
Wednesday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Thursday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 30-32°C
Friday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 29-31°C
Saturday
Low: 25-26°C
High: 29-31°C
Maximum high temperatures are forecast to return to near to below-average levels for November across Trinidad and Tobago over the next five days due to forecast rainfall and cloudy skies, with actual temperatures reaching as high as 32°C across both islands. Across the country, over the next five days, the heat index, or feels like temperature, is forecast to range between 34°C and 38°C, as some days, particularly Wednesday, partly cloudy skies will allow for warming. Minimum lows are forecast to range between 25°C and 26°C daily but can trend lower in interior areas of the country and across eastern Tobago, where rainfall persists.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingForecast Rainfall Totals
- Tuesday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country, totals between 15 and 35 millimeters across Trinidad. Locally higher amounts (between 50 and 100 millimeters) are likely in areas that receive persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms, favoring eastern Trinidad.
- Wednesday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country and isolated totals up to 25 millimeters favoring eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago. Locally higher amounts in areas that receive persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms.
- Thursday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country and isolated totals up to 25 millimeters favoring eastern and western coastal areas of Trinidad. Locally higher amounts in areas that receive persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms.
- Friday: Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the country and isolated totals up to 25 millimeters favoring eastern and western coastal areas of Trinidad, as well as Tobago. Locally higher amounts in areas that receive persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms.
- Saturday: Little to no significant rainfall across the western half of Trinidad. Between 5 and 15 millimeters across the remainder of the country and isolated totals up to 25 millimeters favoring eastern coastal areas of Trinidad, as well as Tobago. Locally higher amounts in areas that receive persisting heavy showers or thunderstorms.
Understanding Rainfall Accumulations
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsWhat is a strong or severe thunderstorm?
Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:
- Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
- Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
- Hail (of any size);
- Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
- The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsWith winds gusting to 55 KM/H and occasionally above, whole trees can be in motion, with larger trees and weaker branches falling. Light outdoor objects can topple or become airborne, such as garbage cans, loose galvanize, construction material, and outdoor furniture. Tents may also jump. Note these impacts are mainly possible ahead of and during heavy/violent showers and thunderstorms.
Other Hazards
Saharan Dust Forecast
Major Saharan Dust Surge Now Moving Across T&T
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Over the next five days, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast.
Forecast Discussion
On Monday night through Wednesday, a mid to upper-level trough will be present across the Windward Islands, including Trinidad and Tobago. This trough will interact with the Intertropical Convergence Zone south of T&T with favorable upper-level conditions, low-level convergence, deep-layered moisture, and light wind shear, leading to increased cloudiness with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall may also be slow-moving, leading to very localized high rainfall totals where heavy showers or thunderstorms occur.
By Wednesday into Thursday, this mid to upper-level trough will weaken across the Windwards and T&T, with wind shear increasing and a marginal decrease in atmospheric moisture. Still, conditions remain somewhat favorable due to low-level convergence for isolated showers and thunderstorms, generally favoring eastern Trinidad and Tobago during the first half of the day and overnight and western coastal areas during the afternoon.
On Friday and Saturday, successive low-level troughs are forecast to move across the Wdinwards, including T&T, leading to another increase in showers and thunderstorms across both islands, with heavier showers favoring Tobago and eastern Trinidad during the early morning and night and across western Trinidad during the late morning through afternoon hours.
From Wednesday into the weekend, low to mid-level winds are forecast to increase, which can make it to the surface in showers or thunderstorms. As a result, forecast winds will reach as high as 35 KM/H and gust to 55 KM/H.
Note that as an extended forecast goes further into the future, it is normal for the certainty to be reduced relative to the extended time period.
