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Forecast: Hot Days Return To T&T, Afternoon Rainfall Possible

October 7, 2023
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Mostly hot and sunny conditions are forecast over the next five days across Trinidad and Tobago, with dangerously high heat indices.

What you need to know

— Rainfall: Over the next five days, between 5 and 25 millimeters are forecast across T&T. In isolated areas across Trinidad, locally higher amounts are possible, particularly in isolated heavy afternoon showers or thunderstorms.
— Saharan Dust: Moderate to occasionally mild Saharan Dust is forecast across T&T over the next five days.
— Hazards: The main hazard over the next five days will be sweltering temperatures across both islands, particularly on Sunday. Heat indices across the country will reach dangerous levels. Through Tuesday, isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible across Trinidad, which may produce cloud-to-ground lightning, brief gusty winds, and highly isolated, heavy/violent rainfall, which can trigger short-lived, localized street/flash flooding.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate, with waves in open waters generally reaching as high as 2.0 meters through Thursday. In sheltered areas, waves are forecast to be near to below 1.0 meter, but choppy in heavy showers/thunderstorms and along northern./eastern coasts due to long-period swells.

Latest Alert

2 minute read

Adverse Weather Alert Discontinued For T&T

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) has discontinued the Adverse Weather Alert for Trinidad and Tobago. — What has happened: Fast-moving showers and thunderstorms affected…
October 25, 2024

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.

The Forecast

Sunday

Sunday
3 10 0 1
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Monday

Monday
4 10 0 1
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
4/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low – Medium

Tuesday

Tuesday
3 10 0 1
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
Mostly hot, sunny, and hazy with partly cloudy conditions developing from the late morning through the afternoon, with the odd shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad. A mostly settled and hazy night.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Wednesday

Wednesday
2 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny, with partly cloudy periods developing by the late morning through the afternoon. A low chance of an odd shower or thunderstorm favoring western and hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly fair night.
Mostly hot and sunny, with partly cloudy periods developing by the late morning through the afternoon. A low chance of an odd shower or thunderstorm favoring western and hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly fair night.
2/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Very Low – Low

Thursday

Thursday
1 10 0 1
Mostly hot and sunny, with partly cloudy periods developing by the late morning through the afternoon. A low chance of an odd shower or thunderstorm favoring western and hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly fair night.
Mostly hot and sunny, with partly cloudy periods developing by the late morning through the afternoon. A low chance of an odd shower or thunderstorm favoring western and hilly areas of Trinidad. A mostly fair night.
1/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Very Low

Marine Forecast

Temperatures

Sunday

Low: 25-26°C

High: 33-35°C

Monday

Low: 25-26°C

High: 33-36°C

Tuesday

Low: 25-26°C

High: 33-36°C

Wednesday

Low: 23-25°C

High: 33-37°C

Thursday

Low: 24-25°C

High: 33-37°C

Very hot temperatures are forecast for Trinidad and Tobago over the next five days, with maximum highs reaching and exceeding 33°C in Tobago and 34°C in Trinidad. Across the country, over the next five days, the heat index, or feels like temperature, is forecast to range between 36°C and 48°C, reaching as high as 53°C across western and urbanized areas of both islands. Heat indices above 42°C are dangerous. Note that while hot temperatures are explicitly forecast, pop-up showers/thunderstorms could keep the actual temperature lower than forecast while the heat index remains high.

Forecast Impacts

Flooding

Flooding
3 10 0 1
Over the next five days, between 5 and 25 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas across Trinidad, locally higher amounts are possible, particularly in isolated heavy afternoon showers or thunderstorms where daily rainfall accumulations could exceed 10-15 millimeters. As a result, the overall risk for street/flash flooding is low, given these isolated downpours can cause potentially impactful but short-lived floods.
Over the next five days, between 5 and 25 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas across Trinidad, locally higher amounts are possible, particularly in isolated heavy afternoon showers or thunderstorms where daily rainfall accumulations could exceed 10-15 millimeters. As a result, the overall risk for street/flash flooding is low, given these isolated downpours can cause potentially impactful but short-lived floods.
3/10
Likelihood
Low

Forecast Rainfall Totals

  • Sunday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the odd heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad, where totals could exceed 10 millimeters.
  • Monday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the odd heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad, where totals could exceed 10 millimeters.
  • Tuesday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across the country, except for the odd heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring Trinidad, where totals could exceed 10 millimeters.
  • Wednesday: Little to no rainfall across the country.
  • Thursday: Little to no rainfall across the country.

Understanding Rainfall Accumulations

Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.

Strong Thunderstorms

Strong Thunderstorms
1 10 0 1
Through the next five days, strong thunderstorms are not forecast as mid to upper-level conditions are forecast to be quite dry.
Through the next five days, strong thunderstorms are not forecast as mid to upper-level conditions are forecast to be quite dry.
1/10
Likelihood
Very Low
What is a strong or severe thunderstorm?

Given how rare these types of thunderstorms are in our region – we classify a severe or strong thunderstorm as one that produces any of the following:

  • Damaging wind gusts exceeding 55 KM/H;
  • Frequent lightning (more than 30 cloud-to-ground strikes within a 10-minute period);
  • Hail (of any size);
  • Rainfall of more than 50 millimeters or more within an hour or exceeding 75 millimeters or more within three hours;
  • The sighting of a funnel cloud or touchdown of a waterspout/tornado associated with the thunderstorm.

Gusty Winds

Gusty Winds
2 10 0 1
Through the forecast period, sustained winds are forecast to reach as high as 25 KM/H, with gusts exceeding 35KM/H in the odd shower or thunderstorm.
Through the forecast period, sustained winds are forecast to reach as high as 25 KM/H, with gusts exceeding 35KM/H in the odd shower or thunderstorm.
2/10
Likelihood
Very Low – Low

Little to no wind impacts are forecast through the next five days.

Other Hazards

Saharan Dust Forecast

Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.

Over the next five days, highly isolated rainfall is forecast

Forecast Discussion

Tropical Update

Over the next five days, a deep-layered high-pressure system is forecast to dominate across the Lesser Antilles, with the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere fairly dry. As a result, mostly hot and sunny conditions are forecast.

Pockets of moisture and low-level convergence/confluence will lead to occasional passing showers, but this activity is forecast to favor the Leewards and northern Windwards compared to T&T.

With very hot temperatures are forecast, where maximum highs could range between 33°C and 37°C. This strong daytime heating, combined with sea breeze convergence, could act as triggers for isolated thunderstorms, but forecast models at this time are not enthusiastic about this outcome, leaving T&T mostly sunny and rain-free.

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