The 2023 Wet Season is forecast to be an overall near-normal season when it comes to rainfall for Trinidad and Tobago, but near-normal rainfall is still a substantial total. For the next six months, Trinidad and Tobago will experience periods of rainfall associated with tropical waves, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and even tropical cyclones. All the rainfall won’t arrive at once, but here’s what you should know for the next several months.
A Near- To Above-Normal Rainfall To Kick Off Wet Season
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is forecasting near- to above-average rainfall totals across much of the country for June 2023 in their updated outlook, issued on May 12th, 2023.
In the latest outlook, the TTMS says that there is a 36% to 57% chance for above-normal rainfall in June for Trinidad and Tobago. There is also a 27% to 58% chance of wetter-than-usual conditions across western Trinidad.
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TTMS: June Likely To Have Near- To Above-Normal Rainfall
Near-Normal Rainfall Overall For the 2023 Wet Season
The 2023 Wet Season is forecast to end with near-average rainfall totals across most of the country. As we progress through the remainder of 2023, rainfall is expected to decrease across some parts of the country. Overall, probabilities are greater than 36% for near-normal accumulated rainfall totals across Trinidad and Tobago for the 2023 Wet Season.
Through August, the first half of the Wet Season, the Met Office is also forecasting near-normal rainfall totals with a greater than 32% chance for near-normal rainfall totals to accumulate in most areas. Additionally, the TTMS forecasts a 51% chance of above-normal rainfall across western areas of Trinidad between June and August, which may lead to high chances for flash flooding during heavy and/or prolonged rainfall events.
From July through September, however, there is a 31%-63% chance of near-normal rainfall. The odds for near-normal rainfall from August through October are greater than 31% for most areas. However, there are growing pockets that will receive below-normal rainfall totals with chances ranging between 61%-67%. Even with these odds, the Met Office notes that “Usual to drier-than-usual conditions in the second half of the rainy season can still have heavy rainfall days that are high risk enough to cause flooding. Flash flood risk remains elevated in occasional and well-known flood-prone areas.”
By the end of the year, from September to November, there is a 33-62% chance for near-normal rainfall. The Met Office also notes that there are developing and shifting pockets across Trinidad that will receive below-normal rainfall totals with chances ranging between 36%-69%.
Near-Normal Still Means Wet Conditions Expected
Although the TTMS is forecasting near-average rainfall overall, periods of heavy rainfall are still likely.
For 2023, there is a 40% chance for an above-normal number of heavy rainfall days (days with rainfall equal to or exceeding 25 millimeters). The country is likely to get 10-18 heavy rainfall days during the season compared to the average of 15 days.
There is also a 27% chance for above-normal, extremely heavy rainfall days where rainfall reaches or exceeds 50.0 millimeters. The Met Office is also forecasting the country is likely to get 4 to 10 extremely heavy rainfall days, with at least two likely to produce in excess of 3 inches or 75 millimeters of rainfall, with the normal for these days being 3.
Through the next six months, they are forecasting accumulated rainfall totals from 887 millimeters in most areas of Tobago and areas along the west coast of Trinidad. Higher rainfall accumulations near 2076 millimeters in northeast Trinidad, in the vicinity of Sangre Grande, Vega De Oropouche, Plum Mitan, and environs, are also forecast.
The Wet Season usually produces 102 to 106 wet days (days with rainfall greater than 1 millimeter). This year is likely to get a reduced number of wet days, with 85 to 107 wet days most likely.
The Met Office’s outlook is forecasting at least two 5-day wet spells, with 5-day totals exceeding 80 millimeters of rainfall, and at least one of the 5-day wet spells is likely to exceed 100 millimeters.
High flood risk potential
The Met Office indicates that flooding is expected to worsen and expand across the country as the 2023 Wet Season progresses.
According to the TTMS, there is an elevated flood potential, with a higher than normal flood potential in northeast Trinidad, near Valencia, Sangre Grande, including Vega de Oropouche, Fishing Pond, Sangre Chiquito, and environs. Similar elevated potentials exist in the South Oropouche River Basin, Penal, Debe, Princes Town, and parts of Couva.
They add that the flood potential is moderately higher than normal for St Helena and environs, Plum Mitan and environs, parts of Mayaro, the city of Port of Spain, Maraval, and lower Diego Martin. Meanwhile, Tobago has a slightly higher-than-usual flood potential across the western half of the island.
The Met Office has singled out 125 communities across T&T with elevated flood risk for the 2023 Wet Season, compared to 81 last year.
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Warmer-than-average temperatures expected
The (TTMS) is forecasting yet another Wet Season with near to above-average temperatures. For the 2023 Wet Season, the TTMS says there is a 45% chance for maximum day temperatures and minimum nighttime temperatures to be above average favoring western areas of Trinidad and Tobago.
In Trinidad and Tobago, the local heat season has its peak from August through October, and the TTMS is forecasting maximum temperatures to reach or exceed 34.0°C during this time. There are also elevated chances for short-duration hot spells and “heat surges” where maximum temperatures reach or exceed 34.0°C during September and early October.
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2024 Wet Season: More Hot Temperatures In The Forcast
What should you do?
- Strengthen community coordination with disaster management personnel.
- Persons living in flood-risk areas should quicken their flood planning and preparedness efforts.
- Purchase emergency supplies, pack a grab-and-go bag with clothes and essentials, and have these on standby.
- Get acquainted with your flood-prone areas and shelter locations and become sand-bag ready.
- Develop an evacuation plan that outlines the safety of family members and pets.
- Update contact information for the local disaster officials and other emergency services.
