At 2:31 PM on Thursday, May 11th, 2023, the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI SRC) recorded a minor magnitude 3.9 (mt) earthquake west of Trinidad, inland Venezuela. Earthquake parameters from the UWI SRC were updated, and this quake was relocated from the northwest of Trinidad further south and west.
The new earthquake location is at 63.100°W and 10.330°N, approximately 38.8 kilometers south-southeast of Carúpano, Venezuela, 182 kilometers west-southwest of Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, and 65.8 kilometers southwest of Irapa, Venezuela. The event was located at a depth of 154 kilometers.
The UWI SRC is the authority for seismic and volcanological information in the English-speaking Eastern Caribbean. Changes in earthquake magnitude, depth, and location are not unusual when the quake is reviewed by an analyst at the UWI SRC.
The event was not reported felt in Trinidad, based on felt reports at this time. You can submit felt reports to the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) recorded this quake at a magnitude of 4.9 (mb) at a depth of 20.6 kilometers. According to Risklayer GmbH, which provides rapid disaster information using the USGS paramater, up to 3 million people may have felt shaking following this quake, with more than 200,000 people living in Venezuela who may have experienced shaking that could result in damage.
There was no tsunami threat.
There are four conditions necessary for an earthquake to cause a tsunami:
- The earthquake must occur beneath the ocean or cause material to slide within or into the ocean.
- The earthquake must be strong, with at least a magnitude of 6.5.
- The earthquake must rupture the Earth’s surface and it must occur at a shallow depth – less than 70 kilometers below the surface of the Earth.
- The earthquake must cause vertical movement of the seafloor (up to several meters).
None of these conditions occurred.
Note that different seismic monitoring agencies use different methods, or several methods, for processing quake parameters across the globe. Each method has its limitations and will likely produce different results within the range of the data’s uncertainty. This is generally accepted within the scientific community.
The Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Research (FUNVISIS) recorded this earthquake as a magnitude (MW) 4.1, in a similar location to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), at a similar depth of 17.4 kilometers. Strong shaking was reported in Caripe, Lecherias, Cumaná, and Mariguitar, Venezuela.
The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) recorded this quake at a preliminary magnitude of 4.9 (subject to change) at a similar depth of 10 kilometers. However, the location of the epicenter is further inland, Venezuela.
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Earthquake Magnitude & Intensity
Can earthquakes be predicted or forecasted?
Where this particular earthquake occurred, within 20 kilometers of the new UWI SRC epicenter, over 200 earthquakes have been located within this area over history, and earthquakes up to magnitude 5.3 have been recorded on May 14th, 1966. Most quakes in this area occur between magnitudes 2.0 and 3.5, at depths shallower than 25 kilometers.
Has there been an increase in seismic activity?
Trinidad and Tobago and the surrounding region are very seismically active. Across the Eastern Caribbean, over 2,200 earthquakes are recorded annually. Since 1990, the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre records an annual average of 280 earthquakes in the Trinidad and Tobago region (area bounded by 9.5°- 11.5°N & 59.5°W – 63.5°W). Of these 280 quakes, 50 of these seismic events are, on average, above magnitude 3.5.
Most earthquakes occur northwest of Trinidad in an area known as North of the Paria Peninsula, which has the second-highest seismicity in the Eastern Caribbean. According to the UWI SRC, approximately 65 events of magnitude 2.1 and above are located in the area annually.
However, the UWI SRC has said regional seismic and volcanic activity has been elevated for several years in their annual report for 2020 to 2021.
On average, the Eastern Caribbean has seen a pattern of major (M7.0-M7.9) quakes every 20 to 30 years. That pattern has stayed true. The last major (M7.0-7.9) quake occurred north of Martinique in 2007.
Historical patterns indicate that great quakes (M8.0+) on the Richter Scale have occurred every century in the region. The probability of another event at that level is high since the last >M8.0 earthquake occurred in 1843. While it is impossible to say definitively when the next great quake would occur in the region, the time since the last one is now more than 170 years ago.
It is important to note seismic activity *cannot* be predicted – meaning the precise time, date, magnitude, depth, etc., cannot be known ahead of time based on current research and technology.
Now is the time to create or go over your earthquake preparedness plan and know what to do during, before, and after an earthquake.
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In our region, earthquakes can strike at any time and any place, so it is important to know how to keep yourself safe when one strikes.
