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Forecast: Few Showers, Cloudy Periods To Interupt Sunny & Hazy Skies

May 5, 2023
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Even with tropical waves on the approach, Trinidad and Tobago is set to continue experiencing the dry pattern that has entrenched itself across the region through the next five days.

What you need to know

— Rainfall: Through next Wednesday, most areas are forecast to see no persisting rainfall, particularly west-central areas, with the country seeing below 5 millimeters, getting as high as 30 millimeters of rainfall, favoring eastern Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas favoring eastern and southern coastal Trinidad, highly isolated heavy showers on Saturday into Sunday could produce rainfall exceeding 20 millimeters.
— Saharan Dust: Mild to moderate concentrations of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain across T&T throughout the next five days, increasing from Sunday.
— Hazards: The main hazard over the next five days will be reduced air quality as a result of Saharan Dust and bushfires, and gusty winds. Winds are set to remain elevated, so in isolated showers, wind gusts may exceed 45 KM/H and up to 50 KM/H next Tuesday. There is a low chance of street/flash flooding favoring southern coastal Trinidad, mainly on Saturday and Sunday.
— Marine: Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters with waves up to 2.0 meters and near 1.0 meter in sheltered areas. Seas may be locally choppy due to a combination of swells (ending on Saturday), spring tides (ending on Monday), and elevated winds.

Latest Alerts

1 minute read

Hazardous Seas Alert Discontinued For T&T

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has discontinued the Hazardous Seas Alert for the country on Friday at 5:55 AM. Over the last 36 hours, north long-period swells have…
October 20, 2024

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm or hurricane threat, watch, or warning at this time.

The Forecast

Saturday

Saturday
3 10 0 1
Initially sunny, hazy, and breezy with increasingly cloudy skies from the afternoon into the night. By midday through nightfall, isolated showers are possible, favoring Trinidad. There is a low chance (30%) of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm across Trinidad, generally favoring southern coastal Trinidad. Across Tobago, there is a very low (10%) chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds, and street flooding are possible.
Initially sunny, hazy, and breezy with increasingly cloudy skies from the afternoon into the night. By midday through nightfall, isolated showers are possible, favoring Trinidad. There is a low chance (30%) of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm across Trinidad, generally favoring southern coastal Trinidad. Across Tobago, there is a very low (10%) chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm. Gusty winds, and street flooding are possible.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Sunday

Sunday
3 10 0 1
Partly cloudy, hazy, and breezy with few cloudy periods and isolated showers throughout the day. By the late morning through the afternoon, there is a low (30%) of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring southern coastal and hilly areas of Trinidad. Hazy and breezy night, barring the odd shower.
Partly cloudy, hazy, and breezy with few cloudy periods and isolated showers throughout the day. By the late morning through the afternoon, there is a low (30%) of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring southern coastal and hilly areas of Trinidad. Hazy and breezy night, barring the odd shower.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Monday

Monday
1 10 0 1
Mostly sunny and hazy start, becoming increasingly cloudy and breezy with isolated showers throughout the day. Gusty winds possible. By the night, increased cloudiness and isolated showers are forecast. Gusty winds are likely to accompany overnight showers across both islands.
Mostly sunny and hazy start, becoming increasingly cloudy and breezy with isolated showers throughout the day. Gusty winds possible. By the night, increased cloudiness and isolated showers are forecast. Gusty winds are likely to accompany overnight showers across both islands.
1/10
Thunderstorm Chances iThunderstorms not expected
Very Low

Tuesday

Tuesday
3 10 0 1
Variably cloudy, hazy and breezy/windy conditions across the country with isolated showers through the afternoon. There is a low chance (30%) of a thunderstorm or heavy shower favoring southern and western areas of Trinidad during the late morning and afternoon periods. Mostly settled, hazy and breezy night. Gusty winds likely, street flooding possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms.
Variably cloudy, hazy and breezy/windy conditions across the country with isolated showers through the afternoon. There is a low chance (30%) of a thunderstorm or heavy shower favoring southern and western areas of Trinidad during the late morning and afternoon periods. Mostly settled, hazy and breezy night. Gusty winds likely, street flooding possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms.
3/10
Thunderstorm Chances
Low

Wednesday

Wednesday
1 10 0 1
Mostly warm, sunny, breezy, and hazy with the low chance of an isolated shower throughout the day, favoring eastern and southern areas. A hazy night with the low chance of an isolated shower.
Mostly warm, sunny, breezy, and hazy with the low chance of an isolated shower throughout the day, favoring eastern and southern areas. A hazy night with the low chance of an isolated shower.
1/10
Thunderstorm Chances iThunderstorms not expected
Very Low

Marine Forecast

Temperatures

Generally, over the next five days, maximum highs and minimum lows are forecast to be above average.

Tuesday through Saturday

Low: 24-26°C

High: 31-34°C

Maximum high temperatures are forecast to range between 31°C to 34°C trending cooler across Tobago and higher across urbanized areas of Trinidad, where in built-up areas, maximum high temperatures could exceed 34°C. On Saturday into Sunday, cooler maximum highs are possible, around 32°C, due to increased cloud cover. Minimum lows are forecast to remain warm, ranging between 24°C and 26°C in Trinidad and Tobago, trending cooler in interior areas. The heat index will generally exceed 38°C over the next five days, prompting concerns about heat exhaustion.

Forecast Impacts

Flooding

Flooding
3 10 0 1
Even with the passages of two tropical waves, overall rainfall totals are not forecast to be high. Most areas are forecast to see no persisting rainfall, particularly west-central areas, and as high as 30 millimeters of rainfall, favoring eastern Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas favoring eastern and southern coastal Trinidad, highly isolated heavy showers on Saturday into Sunday could bring locally heavy rainfall amounts exceeding the overall five-day totals in a few hours, which could bring the risk of street/flash flooding.
Even with the passages of two tropical waves, overall rainfall totals are not forecast to be high. Most areas are forecast to see no persisting rainfall, particularly west-central areas, and as high as 30 millimeters of rainfall, favoring eastern Trinidad and Tobago. In isolated areas favoring eastern and southern coastal Trinidad, highly isolated heavy showers on Saturday into Sunday could bring locally heavy rainfall amounts exceeding the overall five-day totals in a few hours, which could bring the risk of street/flash flooding.
3/10
Likelihood
Low

Forecast Rainfall Totals

  • Saturday: Little to no rainfall forecast across western and central areas of Trinidad. Elsewhere, up to 5 millimeters. In localized areas favoring southern coastal Trinidad, isolated totals may exceed 5 to 10 millimeters.
  • Sunday: Little to no rainfall forecast across western and central areas of Trinidad. Elsewhere, up to 5 millimeters. In localized areas favoring Trinidad’s eastern and southern coastal areas, isolated totals may exceed 5 to 10 millimeters.
  • Monday: Between 0 and 10 millimeters across the country, trending higher across the eastern halves of both islands. Isolated totals may exceed 5 millimeters, favoring eastern and northern Trinidad, as well as eastern Tobago.
  • Tuesday: Little to no rainfall forecast across western and central areas of Trinidad. Elsewhere, up to 5 millimeters. In localized areas, favoring eastern and southern coastal areas of Trinidad, isolated totals may exceed 5 millimeters.
  • Wednesday: Little to no rainfall forecast. Isolated areas, favoring eastern and southern Trinidad and Tobago, may receive up to 5 millimeters.

Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.

Strong Thunderstorms

Strong Thunderstorms
1 10 0 1
The overall atmosphere is forecast to be mostly dry and hostile. Strong thunderstorm development is not expected across Trinidad and Tobago. There is a very low to low chance of isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, generally favoring southern coastal Trinidad.
The overall atmosphere is forecast to be mostly dry and hostile. Strong thunderstorm development is not expected across Trinidad and Tobago. There is a very low to low chance of isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, generally favoring southern coastal Trinidad.
1/10
Likelihood
Very Low

Gusty Winds

Gusty Winds
6 10 0 1
Over the next five days, sustained winds up to 30 KM/H are likely, with higher gusts possible in showers or the odd thunderstorm, exceeding 45 KM/H. On Tuesday, low-level winds are forecast to reach up to 35 KM/H with gusts to 50 KM/H possible, mainly in passing showers.
Over the next five days, sustained winds up to 30 KM/H are likely, with higher gusts possible in showers or the odd thunderstorm, exceeding 45 KM/H. On Tuesday, low-level winds are forecast to reach up to 35 KM/H with gusts to 50 KM/H possible, mainly in passing showers.
6/10
Likelihood
Medium – High

Possible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures.

Other Hazards

Saharan Dust Forecast

Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.

Isolated rainfall is forecast over the next five days, with variably cloudy and hazy skies expected.

Forecast Discussion

Tropical Update

Trinidad and Tobago has been under the influence of a deep-layered ridge pattern over the last few days, with very dry air in place, particularly at the atmosphere’s low to mid and upper levels. This pattern will not change substantially, even with the passages of tropical waves.

On Saturday, the pressure gradient across the Windwards is forecast to tighten, advecting moisture across the southern Windwards in tandem with the passage of the first tropical wave for 2023. However, this moisture will be capped below the mid-levels of the atmosphere, limiting deep convection from forming, even with veering winds. As a result, quick passing showers with shallow to moderate convection are forecast to develop between Saturday and Sunday.

By Monday, as a surge of Saharan Dust moves in, the low to mid levels will become drier, with moisture still capped at the lowest levels of the atmosphere, supportive of brisk showers. By nightfall, a brief plume of moisture is forecast to move in from the low to mid levels associated with Tropical Wave 02, supporting increased showers overnight Monday through the first half of Tuesday. Some shallow instability could support shallow to moderate convection (brief thunderstorms or brief heavy showers).

On Tuesday, a surge of low-level winds trailing the passage of Tropical Wave 02, as the pressure gradient tightens once again, will usher in drier and breezy conditions into Wednesday. Saharan Dust is forecast to remain present, resulting in hazy skies.

Through the five-day forecast period, wind shear will be strong, above 30 knots and as high as 50 knots from the west-southwest to west-northwest, keeping heavier showers and thunderstorms brief and overall higher rainfall offshore eastern Trinidad.

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