The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) is officially declaring that the 2023 Dry Season has begun.
In a social media post, the Met Service said, “The present climatic patterns and features, such as the dominance of strong upper-level southwesterly to westerly winds over our region, the intensification of the North Atlantic sub-tropical high-pressure system, the strengthened trade-wind inversion, and stronger surface winds, signal that the region has transitioned to its drier state. The dry season generally manifests itself by reduced moisture, increased atmospheric stability, fewer deep clouds, less frequent rainfall events, warm days and cool nights, and a shift in the wind direction to mostly easterlies to north easterlies, all of which are being experienced now.”
The country can still expect rainfall episodes during the dry season but not with the frequency and quantity that occurs during the wet season.
This is a breaking news story. This post will be updated shortly.
Dry Season 2023 Outlook & Key Messages from the TTMS
- The La Niña event is expected to continue into the months of late February/early March 2023 and will likely enhance local rainfall events during this period.
- The 2023 Dry Season (January-May) rainfall outlook indicates high chances for enhanced rainfall that tilts the odds towards wetter than usual conditions with near-normal to above-normal rainfall totals favoured at this time for both islands.
- The majority of the country is likely to get a percentage of average seasonal rainfall totals that range between 88% to 141%.
- Trinidad and Tobago receives on average 3 to 8, 7-day dry spells and 1 to 5, 10-day dry spells in the dry season. For 2023, there is a 70% probability for 3 to 5, 7-day dry spells and 1 to 3, 10-day dry spells.
- The outlook indicates relatively moderate to high probabilities (40%-100%) across most areas for seasonal rainfall totals to exceed the national dry season average of 412.0 mm.
- There is a low (2%-17%) probability for totals to be in the lowest 10% of all dry season rainfall totals.
- The 2023 Dry Season temperature outlook indicates that near-normal seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are likely, but at least three (3) to seven (7) cold nights when temperatures can fall below 20.0°C are possible in January and February 2023.
Likely Impacts:
- Recent rainfall excesses during October and November 2022 have already influenced surface water flows and river levels. Wetter than usual conditions will increase surface and groundwater recharge rates and stream flow rates.
- Wetter conditions in the dry season usually increase breeding areas for mosquitoes, flies, rodents, and other wild creatures in and around homes and covered dry areas
- The earlier part of the dry season is expected to be wetter than normal and will likely decrease bush, forest and landfill fire potential.
- The latter half of the dry season is expected to be normal to drier than normal, therefore, the probability of bush, forest and landfill fires is likely to increase. This will likely reduce air quality and negatively affect persons with existing respiratory and other ailments.
