On Friday night through Saturday afternoon, mostly settled conditions are forecast with the low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. While cloudy conditions are possible on Sunday, sunny skies return to Trinidad and Tobago from Monday, continuing into next week. However, isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain forecast for the northwest and southwest daily.
What you need to know
— Rainfall: Through Sunday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, interrupting variably cloudy skies. Isolated afternoon showers and the odd thunderstorm are possible, favoring western coastal Trinidad and hilly areas. Overall rainfall accumulations through the next three days are forecast to be up to 35 millimeters, trending higher across northwestern and southwestern areas.
— Hazards: Localized street/flash flooding is possible, favoring western coastal Trinidad. Wind gusts up to 45 KM/H are possible, accompanying heavy showers or thunderstorms. Lightning will accompany thunderstorms.
— Alerts/Watches/Warnings: There are no alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. There are no tropical storm or hurricane watches or warnings in effect for T&T at this time.
— Saharan Dust: A mild surge of dust is forecast to arrive across Trinidad and Tobago by late Monday.
The Forecast
Friday Night
Friday NightSaturday
SaturdaySunday
SundayMonday
MondayMarine: Through Monday, slight seas are forecast in T&T’s open waters, with near-calm seas in sheltered areas.
Temperatures
Saturday
Low: 23-24°C
High: 32-33°C
With mostly sunny skies, heat indices (or feels-like temperatures) are forecast to be between 35°C and 45°C. Locally higher heat indices are possible in urbanized areas like Port of Spain, Chaguanas, and San Fernando.
Sunday
Low: 23-24°C
High: 32°C
While increased cloud cover is forecast, sunshine will peak through the brief cloudy periods. Heat indices (or feels-like temperatures) are forecast to be up to 35°C.
Monday
Low: 23-24°C
High: 32-34°C
With mostly sunny skies, heat indices (or feels-like temperatures) are forecast to be between 35°C and 45°C. Locally higher heat indices are possible in urbanized areas like Port of Spain, Chaguanas, and San Fernando.
Forecast Impacts
Flooding
FloodingChances for street and flash flooding are medium across the country, though locally across western Trinidad, in slow-moving heavy showers or thunderstorms, these chances are high. Riverine flooding remains unlikely as overall rainfall totals remain low.
Forecast Rainfall Totals
- Saturday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters across western coastal areas. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorm activity.
- Sunday: Less than 5 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with isolated totals of up to 15 millimeters across western coastal areas and southern Trinidad. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorm activity.
- Sunday: Less than 10 millimeters of rainfall across both islands, with locally higher totals in thunderstorm activity favoring Trinidad.
Putting the rainfall forecast into context, rainfall rates in excess of 50 millimeters per hour or areas that receive in excess of 25 millimeters within an hour tend to trigger street flooding across the country or flash flooding in northern Trinidad. For riverine flooding to occur, a large area of the country (not just in highly localized areas of western coastal Trinidad) would have to record upwards of 75 millimeters within 24 hours, and rainfall would have to fall across major rivers’ catchment areas.
Strong Thunderstorms
Strong ThunderstormsThe chances of strong thunderstorms are low. While upper-level divergence is favorable, mainly east of Trinidad and Tobago, wind shear remains very strong, and the atmosphere remains very dry.
Funnel cloud development is possible through the weekend due to light and variable low-level winds. If a funnel cloud touches down on a body of water, it becomes a waterspout; if it touches down on land, it becomes a tornado.
Gusty Winds
Gusty WindsPossible impacts include localized wind damage to trees, power lines, and small structures.
Other Hazards
Cloud-to-ground lightning is possible in strong thunderstorm activity.
Why I May Not/Will Not See Rainfall?
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day, and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Widespread showers mean that nearly all persons and areas may experience rainfall.
Isolated rainfall is forecast over the next three days.
Forecast Discussion
Tropical Waves (and other notable weather features) near and east of T&T: Based on the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch’s 18Z surface analysis on October 14th, 2022, as well as the latest satellite and model guidance:
- The 44th tropical wave for 2022 (TW44) is along 52°W, south of 19°N, moving west at 5-10 knots (9-18 KM/H). This wave is forecast to move across T&T and the Lesser Antilles on Saturday night. Scattered showers and cloudiness have been ahead of this tropical wave, in part due to the influence of an upper-level trough across the Lesser Antilles.
- The 45th tropical wave for 2022 (TW45) is along 43°W, south of 20°N, moving west at 10 knots (18 KM/H). This wave is forecast to move across T&T and the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday, October 19th, 2022. Showers are near the northern portion of the wave axis. This tropical wave is forecast to become severely sheared by the upper-level trough across the Lesser Antilles and lose its signature before reaching the region.
- The 46th tropical wave for 2022 (TW46) is along 26°W, south of 13°N, moving west at 10 knots (18 KM/H). The National Hurricane Center gave this wave a low chance of development (10%) over the next 48 hours and five days as it slowly moves across the Atlantic. This wave is forecast to move into an area of increasing upper-level winds, making development chances unlikely by next week.
Though multiple weather features are forecast to affect the Lesser Antilles this weekend, very strong wind shear and dry moisture levels across the atmosphere are forecast to limit rainfall across Trinidad and Tobago, with some cloudy interruptions.
On Friday night into Saturday, Trinidad and Tobago remains on the convergent side of an upper-level trough system, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity which continues to the east of the country. As Tropical Wave 44 moves across Trinidad and Tobago on Saturday, this suppressive upper-level pattern is forecast to limit rainfall across the country, though cloudy skies are possible.
Weak low-level winds are forecast to remain in place through the next three days. This will allow for daytime heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic effects are forecast to trigger/enhance showers or the odd thunderstorm across western and hilly areas of both islands. By Sunday, upper-level conditions could support isolated stronger showers or thunderstorms that develop along western coastal Trinidad as the divergent side of the upper-level trough moves across Trinidad and Tobago. This trough may also support increased cloudiness.
No major change in weather is forecast on Monday as the upper-level pattern remains unchanged while Tropical Wave 44 moves out of the region.
By Monday night, a marginal increase in Saharan Dust is forecast leading to a slight increase in hazy skies.
