A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Trinidad and Tobago as of 5:00 PM Monday, June 27th, 2022. This was issued ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (PTC2), forecast to move across T&T on Tuesday night into Wednesday. PTC2, based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, is expected to become Tropical Storm Bonnie on Tuesday afternoon before making landfall across northeastern Trinidad on Tuesday night.
What you need to know
— Alerts/Watches/Warnings: A Tropical Storm Warning (Orange Level) has been issued for Trinidad and Tobago. This warning will remain in effect until 5:00 PM Wednesday, June 29th, 2022.
— Track: Latest forecast models and track from the National Hurricane Center show the possible center of circulation moving directly across northeastern Trinidad, southwest of Tobago. Given this system is lopsided and disorganized, impacts will not be concentrated near the center.
— Rainfall: The main hazard associated with this system is flooding rainfall. From Tuesday morning, periods of rain, heavy to violent showers, and scattered thunderstorms are forecast Peak intense rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast from after midday Tuesday through early Wednesday, with lingering showers, rain, and thunderstorms through early Thursday. Between 40 millimeters and 75 millimeters of rainfall is forecast through Thursday, with higher rainfall totals up to 150 millimeters across eastern and northern Trinidad, Tobago, as well as localized areas of southern and western Trinidad. Street/flash flooding is very likely, with riverine flooding possible by Wednesday.
— Wind: The strongest winds are forecast to remain north of T&T. Based on the latest forecast models and the National Hurricane Center forecast, Trinidad and Tobago is forecast to experience maximum sustained winds up to 74 KM/H, with gusts up to and in excess of 92 KM/H mainly accompanying heavy showers and thunderstorms. Stronger sustained winds and wind gusts are forecast particularly across Tobago and elevated areas of the Northern Range.
— Seas: Hazardous seas are forecast for exposed, northern and eastern coastlines of Trinidad and Tobago with waves in open waters on Tuesday into Wednesday between 2.5 meters and 3.5 meters. Hazardous seas are also forecast within the Gulf of Paria due to shifting prevailing winds as the system moves across T&T.
The Tropical Storm Warning
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center, has issued a Tropical Storm Warning on Monday afternoon at 5:00 PM. According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, this warning will remain in effect until 5:00 PM Wednesday, June 29th, 2022.
Why am I under a tropical storm watch or warning?
A tropical storm warning is an announcement that sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
A tropical storm watch is an announcement that sustained winds of 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph or 63 to 118 km/hr) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
This specific watch or warning is based on the potential for experiencing tropical-storm-force winds alone, not the other hazards associated with a tropical storm (hazardous seas, torrential rainfall, etc.). This means if the system tracks close to your country, but the strongest winds remain offshore or north/east of your location, you may not be placed under a tropical storm watch or warning, but you may have other advisories in effect.
“The tropical wave located east of Trinidad and Tobago has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone #2. This means that the system is not yet a Tropical Cyclone but has the potential to intensify into a tropical cyclone in short notice. As a result, Trinidad and Tobago has been put under a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning means that storm conditions are likely over the warning area within 36 hours. Periods of heavy to intense showers and/or thunderstorms are likely, which can result in rainfall accumulations in excess of 3 inches. Gusty winds in excess of 70 KM/H can be expected. These wind gusts are capable of breaking tree branches, displacing unsecured roofs and loose outdoor objects, and can even topple over unhealthy trees. The risk of landslides/landslips is likely in areas so prone and sea conditions can become occasionally rough,” according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. This “warning” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is likely.
The color of the alert indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is orange. This means that the hazards are likely, but the severity of impacts is severe for this particular alert. You should be aware of the hazards in your area associated mainly with gusty winds, street, and flash flooding as well as frequent lightning. Seas will also become hazardous and mariners should prepare for large waves in nearshore areas, particularly Atlantic-facing coastlines.
For an orange-level Tropical Storm Warning, there is a high risk to public safety, livelihoods, and property. Dangerous conditions are imminent or already occurring. Hazardous conditions may threaten lives, livelihoods, and property. Serious injuries or casualties are possible if you do not prepare.
For a severe Tropical Storm Warning, there may be the loss of a single life or serious injuries, physical defenses are needed, major losses in confined areas, income earning impossible for several days, and several communities may be affected and external help needed for recovery.
The public should make preparations to protect yourself, your family, your livelihood, and your property. Plan your evacuation to a shelter if it becomes necessary. Always have emergency supplies of food and water on standby. Secure loose outdoor items and livestock. Do not wade or drive through flood waters. Pre-position sandbags if your area floods and monitor river levels.