— Tropical Wave (02) has lost its wave characteristics as it progressed westward overnight through this morning. Regardless, Scattered showers, generally remaining light to moderate, with a few areas developing into heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely over the next 12 hours. Gusty winds, street flooding are likely, mainly across Trinidad on Sunday, though it is possible across Tobago.
— Reports of wind damage have been reported in the Glencoe area, with 55 KM/H to 60 KM/H sustained winds, and higher gusts recorded. A fallen tree has destroyed parts of a home in Mount Hope and cut off power.
Tropical Wave (02)
Winds over the last 12 hours have generally been from the southeast to east-southeast. The National Hurricane Center has dropped the tropical wave designation from the anticipated tropical wave that was forecast to move across T&T today. However, this trough is still forecast and is producing similar weather to a tropical wave – gusty winds, scattered showers, and locally heavy showers. The passage of a tropical wave can be distinguished by a wind shift of predominantly east, to east-northeast to the east-southeast.
This wave was relatively weak, so widespread severe weather and heavy rainfall were not, and are still not expected, though locally heavy rainfall (i.e. in isolated areas) has occurred, mainly across Eastern Trinidad. Gusty winds have also occurred, with wind gusts in Couva recorded up to 60 KM/H, in Glencoe and Carenage with sustained winds of 60 KM/H and gusts up to 55 KM/H elsewhere. Wind damage, two collapsed walls, have resulted from gusty winds in the Glencoe area. Street flooding is also possible, though none has been reported as of 10:30 AM.
Since midnight, a gradual increase in showers has occurred across Trinidad and Tobago, with heavier showers favoring Southeastern and generally Eastern Trinidad. Gusty winds have accompanied these showers across both islands, with several areas recording winds up to 60 KM/H. Wind damage (collapsed walls, downed trees) have been reported across a few areas in Northern Trinidad.
As the day progresses, favorable areas of low-level convergence and upper-level convergence are forecast to remain in place, with additional isolated showers moving across mainly Trinidad. These showers are forecast to remain light to moderate, with a chance of developing into thunderstorms favoring Southern and Eastern Trinidad. Showers are forecast to become further isolated later this evening, with some lingering through the night.
A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers means that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity. Generally, because of winds associated with weak tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas.
This trough is not forecast to produce widespread severe weather, nor is it forecast to produce widespread heavy rainfall. However, locally i.e. isolated heavy rainfall is possible in heavy showers and/or thunderstorms, as well as gusty winds. Generally, 10-20 millimeters are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago, with isolated areas receiving up to 30 millimeters over the 24 hour period. There is the concern for street flooding, as well as gusty winds in heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Winds are generally forecast between 20-30 KM/H by the late afternoon, with gusts up to 60 KM/H at times.
Last night’s minimum temperatures were 25.1°C at Piarco, Trinidad, and 26.2°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Tonight’s minimum temperatures are forecast to be near 25°C at Piarco, Trinidad, and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago.
Today’s maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near 29°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 30°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Heat indices may top at 32°C across Trinidad and 32°C across Tobago. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.
Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to be up to 2.0 meters, particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago over the 3 days. In sheltered areas, seas to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds will be from the east-southeast, at times from the southeast, at 10-15 knots through the next 3 days.