Tropical Wave 35 & The ITCZ Forecast to Bring Showers, Thunderstorms Beginning on Wednesday

Satellite Image Courtesy Brohav WeatherFax. Forecast from TTWC.

Weather Forecast (Next 48 Hours)

As of 3:00 PM Tuesday 13th August 2019, mostly hot and sunny skies are ongoing across Trinidad and Tobago. The ITCZ has drifted just south of Trinidad with thunderstorms ongoing across inland Venezuela.

A few showers and increasing cloudiness is forecast across Southern Trinidad this evening through tonight. Isolated showers are also possible across Eastern Trinidad overnight.

As Tropical Wave 35 approaches the region tomorrow, an increase of showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly the latter half of Wednesday through Thursday.

Street/flash flooding, gusty winds and landslides possible.

As forecast yesterday, the ITCZ has drifted south of Trinidad and Tobago. Though few showers affected much of southern coastal Trinidad, there were some isolated heavy showers affecting extreme southwestern Trinidad earlier today.

However, cloudiness is increasing across Southern Trinidad, as expected, as upper-level clouds from thunderstorms and heavy showers across inland Venezuela move across the area.

As the afternoon and evening progresses, a few isolated showers are forecast across Southern and Eastern Trinidad, interrupting mostly settled skies.

After midnight, mostly settled conditions are forecast to persist, with increasing showers mainly across the Southern half of Trinidad initially.

On Wednesday, mid-levels across the entire region are forecast to be dry during the early morning period. However, as the day progress, the approaching tropical wave 35 will begin to affect Trinidad and Tobago.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across T&T, interrupting partly cloudy to overcast skies. In addition, winds are forecast to increase across the region, with gusts to 50 KM/H outside of shower activity.

Tropical Wave 35 is along 53/54W. This wave is moving across the Central Atlantic Ocean, with the northern portion of the wave axis located in dry, Saharan air. This wave is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather T&T by the latter half of Wednesday into Thursday. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Tropical Wave 35 is along 53/54W. This wave is moving across the Central Atlantic Ocean, with the northern portion of the wave axis located in dry, Saharan air. This wave is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall, street/flash flooding and inclement weather T&T by the latter half of Wednesday into Thursday. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Presently, Tropical Wave 35 is located along 53/54W, moving westward at 15 knots. Its axis is forecast to move across T&T on Wednesday, with much of the forecast inclement weather expected on late Wednesday into Thursday.

This wave is forecast to drag the ITCZ across T&T yet again, through the end of the week. Combined with favorable upper-level conditions and increased low-level moisture, periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely.

 3:00 PM Tuesday 13th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service mostly clear skies across Trinidad and Tobago with cloudiness and showers across areas south of Trinidad. Additional activity forecast over the next 48 hours.
3:00 PM Tuesday 13th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service mostly clear skies across Trinidad and Tobago with cloudiness and showers across areas south of Trinidad. Additional activity forecast over the next 48 hours.

Based on the latest model guidance, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to move across both islands, with heavier activity favoring much of Trinidad, beginning on Wednesday.

Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Based on the latest model runs on Tuesday afternoon, from Wednesday morning (2:00 AM) through Friday morning (2:00 AM), generally, over the 48 hour period, models are in agreement of fewer than 30 millimeters across of Trinidad and Tobago and between 30-50 millimeters across isolated areas of Trinidad and up to 75 millimeters across Eastern and Southern Trinidad.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals associated with the ITCZ as it moves across the area.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 40 and 65 KM/H are possible Gusty winds are most likely prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 65 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Landslides: Heavy showers across the Northern Range may trigger landslides in landslide-prone areas. Particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur across both islands. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

Temperatures

Last night’s minimum temperatures were warm at 25°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow are forecast to range between 25°C-27°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low-temperature range favoring Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T were near 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of ranging from 35°C to 40°C. Across Tobago, the maximum high temperatures were near 31°C with a heat index of 34-37°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be near 31°C across both islands.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters throughout the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain between 1.5 to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago through the week. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain below 1.0 meters. Winds will be from the east, at times southeast, at 15-20 knots on Wednesday, through the remainder of the week.

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