Tropical Wave 33, ITCZ Forecast To Bring Showers, Thunderstorms to T&T Over Next 24 Hours.

Image courtesy BrohavWeatherFax

As of 6:00 PM Wednesday 7th August 2019, partly to mostly cloudy skies are ongoing across much of Trinidad and Tobago. Very isolated showers are affecting parts of T&T. Additional showers are likely overnight through tomorrow as the ITCZ, local climatic features and Tropical Wave 33.

Thunderstorms are also forecast, across both islands, through tomorrow evening.

Street/flash flooding, gusty winds, landslides and frequent thunder and lightning possible.

There are no alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service as of 6:00 PM Wednesday.

What We Expect

Activity ahead of Tropical Wave 33, combined with the ITCZ is nearing T&T. Showers and thunderstorms are likely evening into tonight and forecast again on Thursday through the evening. Street/flash flooding, landslides, gusty winds possible. Credit: Weathernerds.org
Activity ahead of Tropical Wave 33, combined with the ITCZ is nearing T&T. Showers and thunderstorms are likely this evening into tonight and forecast again on Thursday through the evening. Street/flash flooding, landslides, gusty winds possible. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Winds, at low levels, are becoming more east-northeasterly to northeasterly as Tropical Wave 33 nears T&T. Winds are forecast to become more easterly and then predominantly southeasterly overnight through Thursday.

Favorable upper-level conditions and increased low-level moisture are in place as the ITCZ and this tropical wave moves across the Windwards. Note that at least through tonight, showers presently east of T&T will struggle to maintain its intensity due to an unfavorable low-level environment.

This activity, combined with local climatic features such as daytime heating, an overall light wind regime, and sea breeze convergence is forecast to trigger locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across and near Trinidad and Tobago over the next 24 hours.

Increasing cloudiness is forecast to lead to periods of showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago as the evening and night progress. This activity is due to an active tropical wave moving across the region.

On Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to persist throughout the day, with intermittent showers across the islands. Isolated heavier showers and thunderstorms are forecast to favor the late morning through the late afternoon, mainly across Trinidad. Conditions are forecast to become mostly settled by the night, with a few lingering showers as the ITCZ moves across T&T.

Street/flash flooding, gusty winds, and landslides are possible, particularly across Northern and Western Trinidad.

Wednesday 7th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service showing isolated to scattered showers approaching and occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Additional activity forecast over the next 24 hours as Tropical Wave 33 nears the region.
Wednesday 7th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service showing isolated to scattered showers approaching and occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Additional activity forecast over the next 24 hours as Tropical Wave 33 nears the region.

Based on the latest model guidance, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to move across both islands, with heavier activity favoring much of Trinidad over the next 24 hours.

Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Based on the latest model runs on Wednesday evening, from Wednesday afternoon (2:00 PM) through Thursday (2:00 PM), generally, over the 36 hour period, models are in agreement of fewer than 20 millimeters across of Trinidad and Tobago and between 20-40 millimeters across isolated areas of Trinidad and up to 50 millimeters across Northwestern Trinidad.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals associated with the ITCZ as it moves across the area over the next 24-36 hours.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 40 and 50 KM/H are possible Gusty winds are most likely prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 50 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Landslides: Heavy showers across the Northern Range may trigger landslides in landslide-prone areas. Particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur across both islands. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

Temperatures

Tonight’s minimum temperatures are forecast to be near 24°C at Piarco, Trinidad, and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Tomorrow’s maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near 31°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 31°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Heat indices may top at 35°C across Trinidad and 33°C across Tobago. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the next day or so. Waves in open waters are forecast between 1.0 to 2.0 meters, particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas to remain below 1.0 meters but choppy during heavy showers or thunderstorms. Winds are forecast to remain near 10-15 knots, from the east to southeast.

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