Showers, Thunderstorms Likely to Continue Through Wednesday. Adverse Weather Alert In Effect Through 4 PM Tuesday.

An inclement weather event continues across Trinidad and Tobago this morning as tropical waves and the ITCZ affect the islands. We’ve been expecting this active weather since Thursday and increased confidence in its potential impacts on Saturday. As of 12:00 PM Tuesday 18th June 2019, scattered to widespread showers, generally light to moderate with heavy pockets, as well as isolated thunderstorms (east of Trinidad, presently) are moving across mainly Trinidad. Across Tobago, overcast conditions persist.

An Adverse Weather Alert, updated by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at 12:00 PM on Monday, went into effect at 2:00 AM Monday 17th June 2019 and continues through 4:00 PM Tuesday.

What to Expect Over Next 24 Hours

12:00 PM Tuesday 18th June 2019 Radar Update: A line of light to moderate showers ahead of more widespread showers are moving across Eastern parts of Trinidad. Scattered to widespread showers are forecast to move across Trinidad after later this afternoon, with possible thunderstorms and scattered showers through evening. Radar Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

Intermittent showers, generally light to moderate across Western Trinidad but with heavy pockets across Eastern and Central Trinidad, continue to affect the island. Across Tobago, isolated showers have been occurring, but as of present, mostly overcast conditions are persisting.

Showers and possible thunderstorms are likely to persist through the evening, with intermittent cloudy periods across both islands. Heavier showers are likely to favor Eastern parts of both islands.

Seas are generally forecast to remain moderate, with waves up to 2.5 meters in open waters and below 1.0 meters in sheltered areas. Note that in the vicinity of heavy showers or thunderstorms, seas may be locally rough and/or choppy, both in open waters and sheltered areas.

On Tuesday (2:00 AM Tuesday – 2:00 AM Wednesday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 15 millimeters across Tobago. Across Trinidad, 20-30 millimeters are forecast, with isolated areas receiving between 30-60 millimeters, particularly Eastern and Southern areas of Trinidad.

On Wednesday (2:00 AM Wednesday – 2:00 AM Thursday), 24-hour rainfall accumulation is forecast to be less than 15 millimeters across Tobago. Across Trinidad, less than 15 millimeters are forecast across the island, with isolated totals between 25-35 millimeters possible Eastern parts of Trinidad.

In addition, this tropical wave is forecast to bring a trade wind surge, with wind gusts beginning on Wednesday much of the Eastern Caribbean of 60-70 KM/H, and at times, higher.

Seas are generally forecast to remain moderate, with waves up to 2.5 meters in open waters and below 1.0 meters in sheltered areas. Note that in the vicinity of heavy showers or thunderstorms, seas may be locally rough and/or choppy, both in open waters and sheltered areas.

Temperatures across both islands are forecast to remain generally cool, with maximum high temperatures between 27°C and 28°C across both islands due to showers and cloud cover.

Possible Impacts to Trinidad and Tobago

Flooding: Generally with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur. Rainfall accumulations between 20-50 millimeters, with isolated areas between 50-100 millimeters were recorded across both Trinidad and Tobago on Monday. While most of this rainfall is generally welcome, some rivers across Northeastern Trinidad are at high levels.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely. Most of the thunderstorm activity on Tuesday has generally remained offshore.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 50-60 KM/H are also possible on Tuesday. On Wednesday, these maximum wind gusts may increase to 60-70 KM/H, particularly across Northern Trinidad and Tobago. These wind gusts will generally occur prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion, with weaker trees coming down and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump.

Landslides: In landslide-prone areas, particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

What’s Causing This Inclement Weather?

A tropical wave (09), with its axis a several hundred kilometers east of Trinidad and Tobago, is approaching the Windwards. A deep surge in tropical moisture associated with this wave is moving across T&T presently and is forecast to persist over the next 24-36 hours. In addition, the ITCZ is present across T&T, generating favorable low-level convergence and aided by favorable upper-level divergence.

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

These favorable conditions are forecast to remain in place throughout the day, with upper level divergent and low-level convergence aiding in the development of showers and thunderstorms with the passage of the wave axis. The Intertropical Convergence Zone, or the ITCZ, is across T&T for the first time for 2019 as a result of this tropical wave. Another tropical wave, further east, Tropical Wave 09, will move across the region on later tonight through Wednesday. This will bring another round of adverse weather across T&T, though the present Adverse Weather Alert is only through 4:00 PM on Tuesday. It is likely that this may be extended through the first half of Wednesday at a minimum.

Facebook Comments