Showers, Thunderstorms Forecast to Interrupt Sunny to Partly Cloudy Skies Across T&T

Key Messages:
— A tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles, but the ITCZ is forecast to continue affecting both islands through Sunday. Tropical Wave 62 will interact with the ITCZ as it makes its way across the islands on Saturday.
— Through 2:00 AM, between 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) are possible across Trinidad and Tobago with isolated totals up to 3 inches (75 millimeters) across Eastern Trinidad and Tobago. There is an elevated threat of street flooding and flash flooding.
— Seas will remain slight to moderate, with waves up to 1.5 meters and 2.5 meters are possible in open waters and choppy in sheltered areas.
— Gusty winds in excess of 55 KM/H possible, particularly on Friday and Saturday. Winds of this strength will produce wind damage including downed trees, utility poles and roof damage. Localized power outages possible.
— Frequent Lightning is expected in thunderstorms.
— Landslides possible in elevated areas.

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any alerts, watches or warnings AT THIS TIME.

What We Know

A tropical wave located along 51W and is dragging the ITCZ northward yet again, affecting Trinidad and Tobago. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. Credit: Weathernerds
A tropical wave located along 51W and is dragging the ITCZ northward yet again, affecting Trinidad and Tobago. This wave is forecast to move across the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. Credit: Weathernerds

As of 9:00 AM Friday, the 62nd tropical wave of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season is nearing the Lesser Antilles. Much of the activity will remain south of Trinidad and Tobago, affecting the Guyanas and Venezuela. However, elevated moisture has begun to move across T&T, fuelling heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ.

Thunderstorms and heavy showers developing across Tobago, with additional thunderstorms and cloudiness east of Trinidad and Tobago. Credit: Weathernerds
Thunderstorms and heavy showers developing across Tobago, with additional thunderstorms and cloudiness east of Trinidad and Tobago. Credit: Weathernerds

T&T is located in an area of favorable upper-level divergence and low-level convergence and deep tropical moisture across the region have allowed for strong thunderstorms and heavy showers to develop but strong wind shear has kept these heavier showers and thunderstorms brief.

Sea breeze convergence, where trade winds from the east meet winds from the west, moving onshore from the Gulf of Paria, will also aid in the development of heavy afternoon showers and thunderstorms across Trinidad, particularly Western Trinidad.

9:00 AM Friday 8th November 2019 Radar Update: Heavy showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Tobago and the Eastern half of Trinidad. Conditions forecast to continue Friday. Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
9:00 AM Friday 8th November 2019 Radar Update: Heavy showers and thunderstorms ongoing across Tobago and the Eastern half of Trinidad. Conditions forecast to continue Friday. Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

Isolated to scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the Tobago, with isolated heavy showers ongoing across Eastern and Northern area of Trinidad. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are also ongoing across both islands. This activity is forecast to continue throughout the day as the ITCZ affects the region.

Weather

Friday (until midnight): ITCZ and the approach of Tropical Wave 62. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across both islands, with heavier showers and thunderstorms across both islands, interrupting humid and partly cloudy to cloudy periods. Similar conditions forecast into nightfall.

Saturday (until midnight): Tropical Wave 62. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue throughout the day with cloudy to overcast skies across both islands. Heavier activity will favor Eastern Trinidad and Tobago.

Sunday (until midnight): Tail end of Tropical Wave 62. Much drier conditions are forecast, with isolated late morning through afternoon showers and thunderstorms across parts of Trinidad and Tobago, interrupting hot and sunny skies.

Wind

Peak sustained surface winds of 25 KM/H to 45 KM/H with gusts in excess of 55 KM/H are possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago, particularly on Friday and Saturday during heavy shower or thunderstorm activity.

With wind gusts in excess of 55 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall, bringing down utility poles and lines.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Rainfall

Through 2:00 AM Monday, between 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 millimeters) are possible across Trinidad and Tobago with isolated totals up to 3 inches (75 millimeters) across Eastern Trinidad and Tobago.

There is an elevated threat of street flooding and flash flooding due to the slow-moving nature of this activity.

Thunderstorms and Lightning

With thunderstorms, locally severe wind (in excess of 55 KM/H), violent rainfall rates (in excess of 50 millimeters per hour) and lightning are all possible.

Gusty winds and lightning pose a threat to our power grid, causing localized power outages. Lightning may also strike trees, homes or utility poles causing damage to property. Lightning can also be deadly to persons outside during a thunderstorm.

Seas and Surf

Seas are forecast to be moderate in open waters with waves between 1.5 to 2.5 meters. In sheltered areas, seas are near 1.0 meters, but choppy, particularly during heavier showers or thunderstorms.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?

Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.
Tropical waves typically have fair weather ahead of the wave axis, though other features in the area such as surface troughs, increased atmospheric moisture, and local climatic effects, to name a few, may trigger showers and the odd thunderstorm. Following the passage of the wave, much of the active weather typically associated with a tropical wave occurs.

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity.

Generally, because of winds associated with tropical waves, showers and thunderstorms tend to follow a west-northwest track, generally missing areas across Southwestern Trinidad and even Northwestern Trinidad – though activity due to local climatic effects such as daytime heating may trigger shower and thunderstorm development across these areas. See the below graphic for a simple explanation.

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