Showers, Thunderstorms Forecast by Late Morning. Adverse Weather Alert in Effect.

Key Messages:
— An Adverse Weather Alert Yellow Level goes into effect at 6:00 AM Wednesday through 6:00 PM Thursday.h
— Through Friday, an additional 1 to 2.5 inches (25 to 62.5 millimeters) are possible across Trinidad and Tobago with heavier totals across Northern and Western halves of Trinidad. There is an elevated threat of street flooding and flash flooding by the late week. There is the low chance of riverine flooding.
— Seas will remain moderate, with waves between 1.5 meters and 2.0 meters are possible in open waters and choppy in sheltered areas. Swells are forecast to persist through today.
— Gusty winds in excess of 55 KM/H possible, particularly on Tuesday. Winds of this strength will produce wind damage including downed trees, utility poles and roof damage. Localized power outages possible.
— Landslides possible in elevated areas.

The Adverse Weather Alert

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service has issued the Adverse Weather Alert (Yellow Level) at 5:00 PM Tuesday as the ITCZ is forecast to continue affecting Trinidad, Tobago, and the Southern Windwards. The alert goes into effect from 6:00 AM Wednesday 9th October 2019 through 6:00 PM Thursday 10th October 2019. The ITCZ is forecast to remain in the area through Friday.

Trinidad and Tobago is NOT under any tropical storm watch or warning AT THIS TIME.

Based on the latest model guidance and analysis, these showers, with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms, are forecast to produce possible severe weather across Trinidad and Tobago. This activity is forecast continue through Friday, with periods of cloudiness, though the Adverse Weather Alert begins at 6:00 AM Wednesday 9th October 2019 and ends at 6:00 PM Thursday 10th October 2019.

Information from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service concerning the Adverse Weather Alert for October 9th-10th, 2019.

The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone will affect Trinidad and Tobago with periods of showers and/or rain and isolated thunderstorms. The main impacts will include saturated soils, possibility of landslips and/or landslides in addition to gusty winds, electrical discharges, street and/or flash flooding. ” according to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service. This “alert” status takes into account the possibility of the event occurring. This adverse weather event is likely.

The color of the alert indicates the severity of the event and the probability of the event occurring. Currently, the alert level is at Yellow. This means that the hazard is possible to be aware of the impacts of Street/Flash Flooding and Gusty Winds in your area. Areas prone to landslides should also be aware of the hazard and impacts.

Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
Image Credit: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

What We Know

The ITCZ continuing to affect T&T, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms as forecast, triggering the Adverse Weather Alert. Credit: Weathernerds
The ITCZ continuing to affect T&T, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms as forecast, triggering the Adverse Weather Alert. Credit: Weathernerds

The ITCZ is still located directly across Trinidad and Tobago.

T&T is located in an area of favorable upper-level divergence and low-level convergence. Moisture remains abundant throughout all levels of the atmosphere.

Wind shear is on the increase across the region. Mostly settled but cloudy skies are ongoing across T&T with a few isolated showers approaching the Southern and Eastern halves of Trinidad.

Impacts From The ITCZ

8:00 AM Thursday 10th October 2019 Trinidad and Tobago Impact Assessment for the ITCZ across Trinidad and Tobago. Adverse Weather Alert in effect.
8:00 AM Thursday 10th October 2019 Trinidad and Tobago Impact Assessment for the ITCZ across Trinidad and Tobago. Adverse Weather Alert in effect.

Weather

Thursday (until midnight): The ITCZ and a low-level trough. Essentially the same forecast as the previous. After a mostly settled morning with a few isolated showers favoring Southern and Eastern Trinidad, periods of showers and thunderstorms forecast, interrupting partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Heavier showers are forecast across Western and Northern halves of Trinidad as showers and thunderstorms move towards the northwest to north. Conditions are forecast to become relatively settled by the late evening, with periods of light rain, gradually diminishing to give way to partly cloudy to cloudy skies. Elevated threat for flooding.

Friday (until midnight): The ITCZ, upper and low-level trough. Near identical forecast to Thursday, though activity will be more isolated.

Saturday (until midnight): ITCZ Weakens. A mostly hot and sunny day is forecast across both islands, with isolated showers during the late morning through the afternoon.

Wind

Peak sustained surface winds of 25 KM/H to 45 KM/H with gusts in excess of 55 KM/H are possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago, during heavy shower or thunderstorm activity.

With wind gusts in excess of 55 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall, bringing down utility poles and lines.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Rainfall

Through Friday, an additional 1 to 2.5 inches (25 to 62.5 millimeters) are possible across Trinidad and Tobago with heavier totals across Northern and Western halves of Trinidad.

24-hour rainfall accumulations as the ITCZ affects Trinidad and Tobago on Wednesday 9th October 2019.

There is an elevated threat of street flooding and flash flooding by the late week. There is a very low chance of riverine flooding, as parts of Trinidad and Tobago have received up to 5 inches of rainfall over the last 72 hours.

Thunderstorms and Lightning

With thunderstorms, locally severe wind (in excess of 55 KM/H), violent rainfall rates (in excess of 50 millimeters per hour) and lightning are all possible.

Gusty winds and lightning pose a threat to our power grid, causing localized power outages. Lightning may also strike trees, homes or utility poles causing damage to property. Lightning can also be deadly to persons outside during a thunderstorm.

Seas and Surf

Long-period swells are forecast to continue through today, with seas moderate in open waters with waves between 1.5 to 2.0 meters. In sheltered areas, seas are near 1.0 meters, but choppy, particularly during heavier showers or thunderstorms.

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