Showers, Possible Thunderstorms Forecast to Interrupt Partly Cloudy Skies Later Today.

As of 7:00 AM Thursday 5th September 2019, partly cloudy skies are ongoing across Trinidad and Tobago, with very isolated showers ongoing along Coastal Eastern and Southern Trinidad. As the morning progresses, increasing cloudiness is forecast.

By midday, showers are forecast to begin developing across mainly Trinidad, with possible thunderstorms by the afternoon, favoring the Northern and Western halves of Trinidad. A mostly settled night is ahead, barring the odd isolated shower across Eastern and Southern Trinidad.

Street and flash flooding, gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of or accompanying heavy showers and thunderstorms.

There are NO alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Trinidad and Tobago from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service at this time.

6:45 AM Thursday 4th August 2019: Mostly clear skies ongoing, with a few isolated showers across Eastern and Southern Coastal Trinidad. Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
6:45 AM Thursday 4th September 2019: Mostly clear skies ongoing, with a few isolated showers across Eastern and Southern Coastal Trinidad. Image: Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

As the morning progresses, cloudiness is forecast to increase, mainly across Trinidad. By midday, showers and thunderstorms are forecast, mainly across Trinidad, with thunderstorms and heavier showers favoring Northern and Western Trinidad. This activity is forecast to persist through the afternoon, interrupting partly cloudy to cloudy intervals.

A few brief showers occurred across Trinidad earlier this morning. Mostly settled conditions are ongoing. Image: Weathernerds.org
A few brief showers occurred across Trinidad earlier this morning. Mostly settled conditions are ongoing. Image: Weathernerds.org

The Intertropical Convergence Zone has moved north of Trinidad and Tobago. However, increased moisture and light winds from the east to southeast, combined with an upper-level trough supporting a mildly favorable upper-level environment will allow some heavy showers and the increased possibility of a thunderstorm across Trinidad later today.

Note that in heavier showers or a thunderstorm, locally heavy rain and gusty winds can trigger street flooding and down trees or utility poles.

Temperatures

Last night’s minimum temperatures were warm at 25°C at Piarco, Trinidad, and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow are forecast to range between 25°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low-temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near a mild 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of ranging from 33°C to 37°C. Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be a mild 31°C with a heat index of 32-35°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

The Heat Index

The heat index is a combination of air temperature and relative humidity determining what the air feels like to a person i.e. how hot it actually feels.

The heat index is important because of sweating. Your body sweats in order to cool the skin and maintain a constant, healthy body temperature. This cooling process means that the sweat has to evaporate off the skin to remove heat. However, if the sweat is unable to evaporate, the body isn’t able to regulate temperature.

With high volumes of moisture in the air, also known as high relative humidity, which T&T regularly experience due to its tropical climate, the rate of sweat evaporation decreased. This is because the atmosphere is unable, or has limited potential to hold additional moisture in the atmosphere.

This results in you feeling warmer in humid conditions and cooler in less humid conditions i.e. when relative humidity decreases. As temperature increases, the heat index increases. As relative humidity increases, so does the heat index.

 Heat Index Values Explained
Heat Index Values Explained

The heat index is generally classified into four categories: caution, extreme caution, dangerous and extremely dangerous. Generally across Trinidad and Tobago, we experience heat indices of caution to extreme caution in times of hot days, with isolated areas experiencing dangerous heat indices such as urban areas.

Today, heat index levels are likely to remain at extreme cautious levels. Heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible.

Heat Safety

Graphic: Beat the Heat. Heat related deaths are preventable.

Graphic: Beat the Heat. Heat related deaths are preventable.

Source: MEMA
Heat Safety Tips and Resources
Heat Safety Graphic. Source: Heat Safety Tips and Resources

Seas

Seas are forecast to be slight to moderate with waves up to 1.5 meters in open waters and near calm in sheltered areas.

While the peak of King Tides have ended, elevated tides are still ongoing. This means that nuisance coastal flooding is possible. In the event of heavy showers, particularly along Mosquito Creek and Port of Spain during high tide, run off of any flood waters may be slow.

Over the Next 24 Hours

Winds: Sustained surface winds between 15 KM/H and 30 KM/H with gusts in excess of 50 KM/H are possible in heavy showers or thunderstorms across Trinidad and Tobago.

With wind gusts in excess of 50 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall, bringing down utility poles and lines.

Weather Forecast: High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Rainfall: Rainfall accumulations of at less than 10 millimeters are forecast with isolated higher amounts up to 25 millimeters possible. With thunderstorms and downpours, totals up to 50 millimeters are possible in highly localized areas.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with forecast thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely.

Why I May Not/Will Not See Constant Rainfall?

A frequent complaint is the forecast is wrong because I didn’t experience any rainfall. Scattered showers mean that you, individually, may experience some showers intermittently throughout the day and there is a higher chance for this activity than isolated activity.

Today, isolated activity is forecast.

Forecast - Isolated, Scattered, Widespread - What do they mean?
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