ITCZ Across T&T, Forecast to Continue Bringing Intermittent Showers, Isolated Thunderstorms Today.

Weather Forecast (Next 48 Hours)

As of 11:00 AM Monday 12th August 2019, scattered showers have been moving across Trinidad and Tobago as the ITCZ is across the islands. These showers are interrupting partly cloudy to sunny skies. Increasing cloudiness is forecast later this afternoon with possible thunderstorms and heavy showers favoring Trinidad.

Lingering showers are forecast overnight through the first half of Tuesday, with the chance of thunderstorms favoring Southern coastal areas of Trinidad.

Street/flash flooding, gusty winds and landslides possible.

As forecast yesterday, periods of showers (thunderstorms have remained south and west of T&T) are affecting T&T as the ITCZ remains across the islands. These showers are interrupting partly cloudy skies and even sunny periods at times.

As the afternoon progresses, heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to favor Trinidad. Street/flash flooding, gusty winds and landslides are possible.

By the late evening through the night, lingering showers, mainly light to moderate, will continue to favor Trinidad but possible across Tobago. Isolated thunderstorms may favor Southern coastal areas of Trinidad.

Isolated showers are possible during the first half of Tuesday, with similar conditions to Monday possible on Tuesday and yet again on Wednesday as TW35 approaches the region.

Generally gentle to fresh breezes (15-40 KM/H) winds are forecast for Monday, favoring the upper end of the wind range on Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

What We Expect

 The ITCZ is present across Trinidad, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring across the region. Street/flash flooding, landslides, gusty winds possible. Credit: Weathernerds.org
The ITCZ is present across Trinidad, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring across the region. Street/flash flooding, landslides, gusty winds possible. Credit: Weathernerds.org

Winds, at low levels, are mainly from the east

Favorable upper-level conditions and increased low-level moisture are in place as the ITCZ is present across Trinidad and Tobago.

This activity, combined with local climatic features such as daytime heating, a fairly light wind regime presently, and sea breeze convergence is forecast to trigger locally heavy showers and thunderstorms across and near Trinidad and Tobago over the next 24 to 48 hours.

11:15 AM Monday 12th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service showing isolated to scattered showers approaching and occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Additional activity forecast over the next 24-48 hours.
11:15 AM Monday 12th August 2019 Radar Imagery from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service showing isolated to scattered showers approaching and occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Additional activity forecast over the next 24-48 hours.

Based on the latest model guidance, isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to move across both islands, with heavier activity favoring much of Trinidad over the next 24-48 hours.

Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Based on the latest model runs on Monday morning, from Monday morning (2:00 AM) through Wednesday (2:00 PM), generally, over the 48 hour period, models are in agreement of fewer than 15 millimeters across of Trinidad and Tobago and between 20-40 millimeters across isolated areas of Trinidad and up to 50 millimeters across Eastern and Southern Trinidad.

Generally, with heavy showers and thunderstorm activity, street flooding, particularly in flood-prone areas or areas with poor drainage, is possible as well as flash flooding in areas where more prolonged heavy rainfall may occur, based on the above-mentioned forecast rainfall totals associated with the ITCZ as it moves across the area over the next 24-48 hours.

Frequent Lightning: In addition, with thunderstorms, frequent lightning is likely.

Gusty Winds: Gusty winds, generally between 40 and 60 KM/H are possible Gusty winds are most likely prior to, in the vicinity of, or occur during heavy showers or thunderstorms. With wind gusts up to 60 KM/H, whole trees are expected to be in motion and there may be some inconvenience when walking against the wind gusts. Light outdoor objects may topple or become airborne such as garbage cans, potted plants, loose galvanize or construction material and other outdoor furniture. Tents may jump. Older/weaker trees may fall.

High Wind Event Precautions
High Wind Event Precautions

Landslides: Heavy showers across the Northern Range may trigger landslides in landslide-prone areas. Particularly in areas that receive heavy rainfall, landslides and/or mudflows may occur across both islands. These landslides, in addition to gusty winds, may down trees, utility poles and impede traffic on roadways.

Temperatures

Last night’s minimum temperatures were warm at 25°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 26°C at Crown Point, Tobago. Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow are forecast to range between 24°C-27°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low-temperature range favoring Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be near 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of ranging from 35°C to 40°C. Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be a warm 32°C with a heat index of 34-37°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters throughout the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain between 1.0 to 1.5 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago through tomorrow. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain near calm. Winds will be from the east at 10-15 knots over the next 24 hours, increasing to 15-20 knots on Tuesday, through the remainder of the week.

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