Forecast: Welcome Isolated Showers Across Trinidad & Tobago

Weather Forecast

As of 12:30PM Tuesday 16th April 2019, partly cloudy to overcast skies are occurring across much of Trinidad and Tobago. Tobago have been experiencing intermittent, light to moderate showers over the last 4 hours.

Isolated showers, across both islands, are to continue interrupting partly to mostly cloudy skies. These showers are forecast to be light to moderate, with moderate showers favoring Western and Northern parts of Trinidad, as well as Tobago.

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Upper level dynamics are not favorable to support heavy shower development, moisture is lacking and remains capped to low-levels of the atmosphere. Hence, any shower development will be shallow and brief, generally remaining light to moderate. There is some favorable low-level convergence in place, which may enhance showers, primarily across Trinidad this afternoon.

These showers are due to a weak surface to low-level trough across the Windwards presently with increased low-level moisture. This low level trough is forecast to move out of our area overnight into tomorrow.

On Wednesday, the Central Atlantic surface to mid-level high pressure system is forecast to briefly regain dominance. However, low-level cloud patches may bring brief cloudiness and showers across Eastern Trinidad and Tobago, while daytime heating and sea-breeze convergence causes the same result across Western Trinidad.

On Thursday, into Friday, a surface to low-level shearline is forecast to bring cloudiness and isolated showers to Trinidad and Tobago.

Daily, the highest chances for showers are between 9AM and 6PM, with mostly settled nights. These showers are forecast to remain light to moderate, and are not forecast to produce any significant accumulations. In fact, daily maximum accumulations are forecast to be near 10 millimeters, favoring Eastern Trinidad.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H throughout the week, with gusts to 50 KM/H, near showers.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next week are forecast to range between 24°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 24°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be a hot 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 36°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be near 30°C with a heat index of 33°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures may hover between 32-33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 30-31°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the reminder of the week.

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Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 3 days at 10-20 knots, trending towards the upper end of the range by days 4-5.

Saharan Dust Has Mostly Moved Away From Trinidad and Tobago

Air Quality Index Forecast for the next 5 days. Saharan Dust concentrations are at minimal levels. Air quality is at good levels. Bush fires, as well as blowing dust in very dry areas may maintain air quality at moderate levels throughout the week, particularly across Western Trinidad.

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good levels. Most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Over the next 10 days, no significant Saharan Dust outbreaks are forecast.

00Z April 15th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no significant Saharan dust concentrations are forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 10 days. Credit: Weatherbell
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