Forecast: Showery Pattern Ahead, Sunshine on Thursday

Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

As of 10:00AM Wednesday 17th April 2019, cloudy to overcast skies are occurring across much of Trinidad and Tobago. Isolated showers have been affecting parts of Southern Trinidad, with scattered showers across Eastern Trinidad as well as Tobago.

Cloudiness is forecast throughout today, gradually decreasing by the evening hours across both islands. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue through today, also diminishing by nightfall. Additional isolated showers is forecast to favor Eastern parts of Trinidad.

Upper level dynamics are not favorable to support heavy shower development, mid- to upper-level moisture is lacking and remains capped to low-levels of the atmosphere. Hence, any shower development will be shallow, generally remaining light to moderate.

These showers are due to a weak surface to low-level trough across the Windwards presently with increased low-level moisture. This low level trough is forecast to move out of our area later today.

Weather Forecast (Next 4 Days)

On Thursday, the Central Atlantic surface to mid-level high pressure system is forecast to briefly regain dominance. However, low-level cloud patches may bring brief cloudiness and showers across Eastern Trinidad and Tobago, while daytime heating and sea-breeze convergence causes the same result across Western Trinidad.

By Thursday night a surface to low-level shearline is forecast to bring cloudiness and isolated showers to Trinidad and Tobago.

On Friday, the aforementioned low-level shearline is forecast to exit the region, but a low-level trough is forecast to take its place. These features are forecast to bring intermittent cloudiness and isolated showers to Trinidad and Tobago. An increase in low-level wind is also forecast on Friday, with breezy conditions returning across T&T.

On Saturday, the low-level trough is forecast to remain across Trinidad and Tobago. Marginal instability in the mid to upper levels and the presence of an upper level Jet stream could aid in the enhancement of activity at this time. Cloudy skies with some showers and periods of rain are forecast. Isolated heavy showers are possible, but conditions are still not favorable for thunderstorms.

On Sunday, as the low-level trough moves out of the region, a low-level shearline is forecast to develop across the southern Windwards and maintaining some cloudiness and scattered showers during the day.

Generally, a relatively rainy next couple of days are ahead, which is forecast to bring some marginal drought relief. Daily rainfall accumulations are forecast to be up to 10 millimeters, mainly across Eastern and Northern Trinidad and 5 millimeters elsewhere.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H throughout the week, with gusts to 50 KM/H, near showers.

Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next week are forecast to range between 23°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 23°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T are forecast to be a warm 30°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 33°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to be near 29°C with a heat index of 31°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Maximum high temperatures may hover between 29-32°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 28-30°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the reminder of the week due to showers and cloud cover keeping temperatures low.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters through the week. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 5 days at 15-20 knots.

No Saharan Dust Surges For Next 7 Days.

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good levels. Most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Over the next 7 days, no significant Saharan Dust outbreaks are forecast. By the 25th of April (next Thursday), a mild to moderate surge of Saharan Dust may return to Trinidad and Tobago, reducing visibility and air quality. We’ll be updating accordingly throughout the coming days on this.

00Z April 16th 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no significant Saharan dust concentrations are forecast to move across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 7 days. Credit: Weatherbell

Facebook Comments