Forecast: Partly Cloudy Skies, Isolated Showers, Low Chance of a Thunderstorm for Thursday

Short Term Weather Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Summary: As of 9:00PM Wednesday 24th April 2019, settled conditions are occurring across Trinidad and Tobago. Increasing cloudiness and the odd isolated shower is forecast after midnight. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies are forecast on Thursday, with a medium to high chance of showers throughout the day. By the late morning through the late afternoon, there is a low chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm, favoring mainly Western Trinidad and hilly areas.

Overnight, mostly settled and humid conditions are to persist across Trinidad and Tobago. Increasing moisture at all levels of the atmosphere is forecast overnight through tomorrow. This will likely cause partly to cloudy skies after midnight, with a few brief isolated showers.

On Thursday, mostly settled conditions, cloudy skies and isolated showers in confined areas are forecast to start the day. By mid-morning, partly cloudy skies are forecast, with generally breezy conditions. However, by late morning through the afternoon, isolated showers are likely, mainly across Trinidad. A few of these showers may develop or consolidate into a thunderstorm, particularly across Western areas of Trinidad.

Thunderstorm & Heavy Shower Chances & Impacts for Trinidad and Tobago for Thursday 25th April 2019
Thunderstorm & Heavy Shower Chances & Impacts for Trinidad and Tobago for Thursday 25th April 2019.

Daytime heating and sea breeze convergence across Western parts of Trinidad are forecast to be the trigger for shower development. Marginally favorable mid to upper level environment will be present as an upper level jet establishes itself over the Windward islands.

The main reason chances remain low for a heavy shower or thunderstorm development is that model data continue to indicate that much of the low-level moisture remain north of Trinidad and Tobago. However, mid to upper level moisture is likely to be over T&T. This increase in upper level moisture is why persons across Trinidad and Tobago were able to see a 22° halo on Wednesday.

Regardless, cloudy skies along with a few isolated to scattered showers and light rain are likely. Because of the favorable upper level environment, there is a possibility for isolated areas of enhanced convection i.e. thunderstorms.

Some improvement is forecast by the evening, with generally settled conditions by nightfall, barring the odd, brief, isolated shower.

No significant rainfall is forecast, with most models indicating 5-10 millimeters of rainfall accumulation, and 15-20 millimeters in isolated areas where a thunderstorm or heavy shower may occur. Street flooding may accompany a heavy shower or thunderstorm, in addition to the very low chance of gusty winds.

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Medium Range Weather Forecast (Next 4 Days)

Summary: The chance of a heavy shower or thunderstorm will remain on Friday, albeit much lower, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and the odd afternoon isolated shower. However, improvement is forecast by the late evening, as Saharan Dust moves across the region and low-levels of the atmosphere dries. A mostly sunny and breezy weekend is ahead.

On Friday, fair conditions will generally prevail over the region as conditions significantly improve with a surface to low level high pressure system regaining its dominance. An isolated afternoon shower is possible, favoring Western Trinidad. There is the very low chance this shower become heavy, or develop into a thunderstorm. Little rainfall accumulation forecast. The night is forecast to be mostly clear, breezy and settled.

On Saturday and Sunday, generally sunny and hazy skies are forecast during the day, with the low chance of an afternoon shower. Some partly cloudy skies are forecast to build during the late morning and afternoon, clearing by the late evening.

With these sunny and hazy skies come hot conditions, so expected relatively high heat indices as indicated below!

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H throughout the week. Gusty winds up to 50 KM/H, are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms and heavy showers.

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Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next week are forecast to range between 24°C-26°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 23°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 25°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Tonight, the minimum low temperatures are forecast to be mild, near 25°C at both Piarco, Trinidad and Crown Point, Tobago.

Today, maximum high temperatures across T&T was a hot 32.8°C at Piarco, Trinidad and a heat index of 39°C . Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures was warm at 30.2°C with a heat index of 36°C. The heat index is an index that combines air temperature and relative humidity, generating a “feel’s like” temperature.

Tomorrow, the maximum high temperatures are forecast to be warm, near 31°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 30°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Through the weekend, maximum high temperatures may hover between 30-33°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 29-31°C at Crown Point, Tobago throughout the reminder of the week. Heat indices between 37-39°C are likely across, Trinidad and 34-36°C across Tobago.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain slight to moderate in open waters through the next 5 days. Waves in open waters are forecast to near 1.5 meters, occasionally up to 2.0 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the east through the next 5 days at 10-15 knots.

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Mild Concentrations of Saharan Dust Present Across the Southern Windwards

Air quality continue to hover between good and moderate levels. Islands to our north, including Barbados, Grenada and St. Vincent & the Grenadines are experiencing moderate air quality due to the presence of Saharan Dust.
Air quality continue to hover between good and moderate levels. Islands to our north, including Barbados, Grenada and St. Vincent & the Grenadines are experiencing moderate air quality due to the presence of Saharan Dust.

Presently, dust concentrations remain at minimal levels across the Southern Caribbean. Across Trinidad and Tobago, air quality is at good levels, at times moderate. Most places across Southern Windwards are presently experiencing moderate air quality.

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

By late Friday, based on current information as of 9:30PM Wednesday 24th April 2019, the peak Saharan Dust concentration of this event is forecast to occur across Trinidad and Tobago shores. Air quality is forecast to be reduced.

 Air Quality Index For The Next 5 Days.
Air Quality Index For The Next 5 Days.

Throughout the weekend, i.e. Friday through Monday, mild concentrations of Saharan Dust are forecast across Trinidad and Tobago. Air quality is generally forecast to remain at moderate levels. The exception will be in areas experiencing smokey conditions due to bush fires and blowing dust in dry areas. In these situations, air quality may be further reduced.

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00Z April 23rd 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing lingering Saharan Dust, albeit mild concentrations, through the end of April 2019. Credit: Weatherbell
00Z April 23rd 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model showing lingering Saharan Dust, albeit mild concentrations, through the end of April 2019. Credit: Weatherbell

Related: Saharan Dust

With dry conditions persisting, bush fires will be on the rise. In the presence of even mild Saharan Dust, air quality can quickly degrade to moderate and even unhealthy for sensitive groups. Sensitive groups such as persons with respiratory ailments, children, the elderly and cardiopulmonary disease should take the necessary precautions.

Saharan Dust Precautions
Saharan Dust Precautions
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