Forecast: Mostly Sunny Skies Today, Showers to Return on Friday into Saturday.

Weather Forecast

As of 9:30AM Thursday 4th April 2019, mostly sunny skies have returned to Trinidad and Tobago, with a few areas across Trinidad experiencing partly cloudy conditions. By the afternoon, a patch of low-level clouds northeast of Trinidad and Tobago presently, is forecast to move across the area. It may generate some cloudy periods and bring isolated showers across T&T. Moderate to heavier pockets will favor Eastern areas of Trinidad and Tobago, with accompanying gusty winds.

Mostly settled conditions are forecast by the late evening into nightfall as the surface to mid-level high pressure system remains dominant across the Eastern Caribbean.

However, by early Friday morning, model guidance continue to show weak-low level troughs propagating across the area, bringing occasional cloudiness and isolated shower activity. These conditions will interrupt mostly settled and clear skies throughout Friday.

Highest chance for showery activity is forecast overnight Friday into the early hours of Saturday, where increased moisture at low-levels of the atmosphere is forecast to be present. Showery periods will be brief, providing little rainfall accumulation but gusty winds may occur.

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Some welcome rainfall accumulations are forecast over the next several days, between 0-5 millimeter accumulations, daily, across both Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday. Accumulations up to 10 millimeters, daily, is forecast across parts of Eastern and Northern Trinidad, particularly on Friday into Saturday.

Over the next 3 days, a low-level jet will be present across the Southern and Central Windwards, bringing breezy conditions to the region. Across Trinidad and Tobago, winds are forecast to be up to 40 KM/H with gusts to 55 KM/H.

Note: Showers, rainy or wet days and thunderstorms are possible and do occur in the dry season, such as the severe thunderstorm on March 4th 2018, which produced flash floods across Northern and Central Trinidad. Similarly, dry spells also occur during the wet or rainy season. These seasons generally dictate the overall climate, i.e. generally drier or wetter conditions, but day-to-day weather can vary.

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Temperatures

Minimum low temperatures across Trinidad and Tobago over the next 3 days are forecast to range between 22°C-24°C, with temperatures at the upper end of the minimum low temperature range favoring Tobago. Low temperatures are likely to be lower across inland and mountainous areas. Last nights’ minimum temperatures were 23°C at Piarco, Trinidad and 24°C at Crown Point, Tobago.

Maximum high temperatures across T&T on Thursday through Saturday are forecast to be warm, near 32°C at Piarco, Trinidad. Across Tobago, maximum high temperatures are forecast to near 30°C.

The maximum high heat index, or “feel’s like” temperature is forecast to generally remain near a hot 37°C during the early to mid-afternoons of Trinidad and 35°C in Tobago. Cloud cover and increased surface winds may reduce the “feels like” temperature on Friday into Saturday.

Seas

Seas are forecast to remain moderate in open waters through the next 48 hours. Waves in open waters are forecast to remain up to 2.5 meters particularly East of Trinidad and Tobago. However, on Saturday, seas may become rough as seas, particularly east of Trinidad and Tobago become up to 2.8 meters. In addition, long period swells have begun, which may produce battering waves in nearshore areas, particularly along Northeastern coasts of Tobago and Northern coasts of Trinidad. Small craft operators and marine interests are advised to exercise caution.

In sheltered areas, seas are forecast to remain smooth, below 1.0 meters. Winds are forecast to be from the northeast to east at 15-20 knots.

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No Saharan Dust In Sight

Dust concentrations remain at negligible levels across the Southern and Eastern Caribbean. In fact, most places across the Eastern Caribbean are presently experiencing good air quality. Air quality is forecast to remain at good levels for the next several days. Areas in the immediate vicinity of bushfires may experience moderate air quality.

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EPA Air Quality Index Risk Levels

At moderate air quality levels, unusually sensitive groups should consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion.

Thankfully, long range dust models aren’t indicating any major intrusions of Saharan Dust over the next 10 days! However, over the longer range, models are indicating the return of Saharan dust by the middle of April (15th-17th). This is nearly 2 weeks away, so we’ll be monitoring the situation.

12Z April 3rd 2019 NASA GEOS-5 Dust Model, no Saharan dust concentrations across the Eastern Caribbean over the next several days. Credit: Weatherbell
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